Several drought impacts may affect the Commonwealth this year as the Marianas is entering the El Nino\u2019s dry phase.<\/p>\n
According to the National Weather Service-Forecast Office Guam warning coordination meteorologist Chip Guard the drought could last until August. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t know how bad the drought is going to be. We know how bad the El Nino has been and it is one of the three strongest in the last 100 years. Based on that, it\u2019s going to be a fairly serious drought,\u201d Guard said. <\/p>\n
Currently, some part of Micronesia is under drought level 2 or D2, which means severe drought and that crop or pasture losses are likely, water shortages common, and water restrictions may be imposed.<\/p>\n
NWS said this number will likely increase from D2 to a more severe drought across all of Micronesia.<\/p>\n
Guard said the driest months would be around March and April and rains will not be sufficient until August. <\/p>\n
\u201cIf you get rain, you might get one day of rain, that\u2019s not going to do much. If people have catchments they might get temporary source of water. But for the most part, the rain showers are going to be light, they\u2019re going to be scattered, they\u2019re going to be random, they\u2019re not going to hit the same place every day,\u201d Guard said. <\/p>\n
Guard said at least a 10th of an inch rain is needed for the catchments, while a quarter of an inch is needed for water to get into the soil or into the aquifer.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut if the soil is already dry, one of two things happen, either it takes all that water to saturate the soil, but if it\u2019s already dry and it\u2019s packed then when it rains hard, it doesn\u2019t sink in, then you get runoff,\u201d Guard said.<\/p>\n
Runoffs could then cause water to go directly to the ocean which could bring with it dirt that will not be good for the reefs.<\/p>\n
Because of insufficient rain and dry weather, several impacts are anticipated to be experienced. <\/p>\n
First, aquifers will have less water and the soil will dry up.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe aquifer here on Saipan is fairly shallow in the coastal areas where most of the wells are. As they get thinner and thinner, there is no rain to reinforce the lens, water is constantly running back to the ocean. Eventually the lens gets thinner and thinner,\u201d Guard said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSea levels are low right now. If they\u2019re trying to pump from wells that are near the coastline, they have a much bigger chance of pulling in salt water,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Guard said NWS is encouraging water conservation to be practiced. <\/p>\n
There are also possibilities of grass fires as vegetation, and plants dry up. <\/p>\n
This is one of the main vulnerabilities on Tinian. <\/p>\n
\u201c[Tinian has] a really good aquifer, they have a lot of water so the wells are good but the grasses are going to die and the livestock wouldn\u2019t have anything to eat,\u201d Guard said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn 1998, I think a thousand cattle died during the drought,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Tinian was impacted by the severe drought that followed the strong El Nino event during the latter half of 1997 when the island received less than half of its average annual rainfall. <\/p>\n
\u201cRota is in pretty good shape because they have a lot of wells but the water caves in Rota will dry up,\u201d Guard said.<\/p>\n
Warm temperatures will also have an effect on bodies of water.<\/p>\n
\u201cLater on the spring, the trade winds are going to come back in stronger. That\u2019s going to cause the water to start piling up and then it\u2019s going to mix the warm water on the top down into the ocean and the ocean is going to expand,\u201d Guard said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo the sea level is going to go up and then you\u2019re going to be more susceptible to coastal erosion,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n
Guard said that even if the islands get the same size of swells and waves from Japan, the sea levels will be a foot higher which could then do more damage to coasts.<\/p>\n
After the drought, the well-awaited rainfalls could also pose problems to barren soil. <\/p>\n
\u201cErosions are a problem because once the grass fires get rid of the grass and when the rain comes back, it comes back really hard and it starts eroding the bare soil,\u201d Guard said.<\/p>\n
Guard said with regards to health, the public should also be concerned about stagnant water during the dry season where mosquitoes could multiply and spread diseases such as dengue fever.<\/p>\n
\u201cMosquitoes will lay their eggs and when the rain comes back, those eggs will hatch,\u201d Guard said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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