With three more months before the year ends, there is still a 50-percent chance the CNMI could get a strong tropical storm\u2014one that has winds of 50 to 73 miles per hour, according to a meteorologist with the U.S. National Weather Service.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the CNMI has a 25-percent chance of getting a Category 1 tropical storm\u2014one that that has winds of 74 to 95 miles per hour\u2014for the rest of 2017, said Charles \u201cChip\u201d Guard, a warning coordination meteorologist with the NWS Forecast Office Guam. <\/p>\n
The chance of getting a Category 3 typhoon\u2014one that has winds of 111 to 129 miles per hour or stronger\u2014is around 15 percent or less for the rest of the year, he said.<\/p>\n
Guard discussed the weather outlook or predictions for the rest of 2017 and early 2018 during the #liveprepared CNMI event conducted by the CNMI Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management at the CNMI Operations Center on Capital Hill last week. <\/p>\n
At the ceremony, the House of Representatives presented a commemorative resolution to Guard for his contributions to making the Commonwealth disaster-ready.<\/p>\n
According to the resolution, introduced by Rep. Angel Demapan (R-Saipan), Guard introduced storm- and tsunami-ready programs to the CNMI.<\/p>\n
In his typhoon predictions, Guard said that tropical cyclone activity will likely begin late in 2018, toward summer.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe expect more tropical cyclone activity than in 2016 but not as much activity as in 2015,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
For Saipan and Tinian, Guard said, the islands could see a nearby tropical storm or typhoon in late September, October, November, or December.<\/p>\n
For Rota, he said, the island could see a nearby tropical storm or typhoon in October, November, December, and early January.<\/p>\n
Guard said the Northern Islands could get a tropical storm or weak typhoon in September or early October, but the likelihood is quickly shrinking.<\/p>\n
He said a move toward La Nina will likely increase the sea level heights, exposing the islands to increased coastal erosion during high wave events, either from typhoons or winter storms near Japan.<\/p>\n
Guard said when a La Nina event occurs, the storm tend to develop later in the year and west of or near the Mariana Islands.<\/p>\n
He said the Marianas is now on El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation-neutral, but the Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Nina alert.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis means we could transition into a La Nina phase by mid- to late fall,\u201d Guard said.<\/p>\n
When an El Ni\u00f1o event occurs, tropical storms and typhoons begin to develop earlier in the year and farther to the east toward eastern Micronesia.<\/p>\n
He said during El Ni\u00f1o events, the chance of Rota, Tinian, or Saipan getting a direct hit triples when compared to the chance during non-El Ni\u00f1o periods.<\/p>\n
Guard said during an ENSO-neutral state, which is the transition state between El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, the chance of getting a direct hit by a tropical storm or a typhoon is much better than during La Ni\u00f1a, but not as good as during El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
In general, he said, the odds of Rota, Tinian, or Saipan getting a typhoon is about 1 in 7 or about every seven years.<\/p>\n
In El Ni\u00f1o years, he said, the odds are 1 in 3 or about every three years.<\/p>\n
In La Ni\u00f1a, he said, the odds drop to 1 in 10 or about every 10 years.<\/p>\n
Guard said most computer models are in agreement that the CNMI will remain in an ENSO-neutral state through the summer, and then either maintain the status or trend toward a weak La Ni\u00f1a state by late fall. <\/p>\n
\u201cIn this scenario, we don\u2019t get early season tropical cyclones,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
As for the House resolution, Guard said it\u2019s a big team effort from a lot of people behind at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Guam.<\/p>\n
Guard also noted that CNMI HSEM has a \u201cterrific team.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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