The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the Marianas region can expect above-normal tropical cyclone activity for the reminder of the year following the islands\u2019 shift into El Ni\u00f1o season.<\/p>\n
Citing data from the National Weather Service in Guam, NOAA has advised that the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands of the Federal States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the CNMI, and Guam will likely see above-normal tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of 2023.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, tropical cyclone activity across the Republic of Palau is anticipated to be normal to below normal for the remainder of 2023.<\/p>\n
According to NOAA\u2019s projections, the above-normal activity is consistent with the region\u2019s recent shift to El Ni\u00f1o as supported by the latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith 2023\u2019s transition to an El Ni\u00f1o pattern, it\u2019s important to understand the relationship of interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity based on the ENSO phase. When looking at location-based tropical cyclone frequencies, tropical cyclone activity shifts eastward from the La Ni\u00f1a pattern to the El Ni\u00f1o pattern. In contrast to the below-average tropical cyclone activity across the USAPI region in the La Ni\u00f1a years of 2020, 2021, and 2022, we anticipate considerably more tropical cyclone activity across the region due to the recent transition to El Ni\u00f1o and the possibility of its strengthening to a strong El Ni\u00f1o event by fall,\u201d the advisory states.<\/p>\n
However, tropical cyclone activity will still vary considerably due to the large extent of the Micronesia region.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is likely to result in considerably more regional activity than seen in the past three years. An eastward shift in the tropical cyclone genesis region is predicted to keep tropical cyclone activity near or below normal at the Republic of Palau, with more tropical cyclones passing to the north,\u201d said the advisory.<\/p>\n
The NWS says that the outlook shared by NOAA is just a general guide and does not indicate how many actual systems will actually hit the Marianas.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis outlook is a general guide to the predicted, overall tropical cyclone activity across the USAPI and does not indicate how many of these systems will actually make landfall. However, the outlook does provide a general idea of how many tropical storms and\/or typhoons could affect a specific island or a group of islands across Micronesia, with peripheral effects such as strong damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and\/or storm surge\/inundation,\u201d NWS states.<\/p>\n
However, even if this outlook is just a general guide, which could change in the next few months, NWS urges the communities of the United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands to remain prepared for possible cyclones all year-round.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough tropical cyclone activity peaks around September-November for many regional locations, tropical cyclones can occur throughout the year across the western North Pacific. Therefore, there is no clearly defined \u2018typhoon season.\u2019 Tropical cyclone activity can fluctuate greatly from year to year, though it only takes one to cause significant impacts. Therefore, we always urge residents, visitors and mariners to maintain preparedness for tropical cyclones year-round,\u201d said NWS.<\/p>\n
The communities of the United States-Affiliated Pacific may visit the Guam Homeland Security\/Office of Civil Defense, the CNMI Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and FEMA\u2019s ready.gov for more information on preparedness plans, tips and how to build emergency kits for use at home and at work.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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