1-2 typhoons possible before end of the year
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its Western North Pacific tropical cyclone outlook for the remainder of 2024 and forecasts below normal activity for the Marianas and the rest of Micronesia.
According to NOAA’s tropical cyclone outlook for the rest of 2024, United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands of the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of Marshall Islands, the CNMI, and Guam will likely see below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of 2024,
NOAA explains that below normal activity is consistent with the expected shift from El Niño to ENSO-Neutral, and then to La Niña, as supported by the latest National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.
“As ENSO-Neutral conditions shift to a La Niña pattern by late summer, this is likely to further result in less regional activity, similar to the 2020-2022 La Niña years. Basin-wide tropical cyclone activity typically shifts eastward in El Niño years, and westward during La Niña years. A westward shift in tropical cyclone activity is predicted to keep tropical cyclone activity below-normal for the Marianas, eastern FSM and the RMI, but normal to below-normal for the ROP and possibly for the western FSM,” NOAA states.
Due to the below normal tropical cyclone activity forecasted for the rest of this year, NOAA says the Marianas (including Guam and the CNMI) could see one or two typhoons before the end of the year.
A typhoon is a tropical cyclone that is accompanied by 74 mph maximum sustained winds or more.
In addition, NOAA says the Marianas could see two to four storms before the end of the year.
Storms are classified as systems that carry up to or more than 39 mph maximum sustained winds.
“This outlook is a general guide to the predicted, overall tropical cyclone activity across the USAPI and does not indicate how many of these systems will actually make landfall. However, the outlook does provide a general idea of how many tropical storms and/or typhoons could affect a specific island or a group of islands across Micronesia, with peripheral effects such as strong damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and/or storm surge/inundation,” said NOAA.
Although tropical cyclone activity peaks around September-November for many regional locations, NOAA reminds the public that tropical cyclones can occur throughout the year across the western North Pacific.
“Therefore, there is no clearly defined typhoon season. Tropical cyclone activity can fluctuate greatly from year to year, though it only takes one to cause significant impacts. Therefore, we always urge residents, visitors and mariners to maintain preparedness for tropical cyclones year-round,” said NOAA.
Typhoons pix
