On the money

To the quick: How much is your salary, say, seven years ago in today’s dollar? If you find that your guess isn’t even close, don’t despair. Numbers aren’t always what they seem. That’s particularly true with money. But the simple truth is that a 1970 dollar bought a lot more than a 1980 dollar, which bought more than a 1990 dollar, which — okay, you get the point. Back to the question. Let’s just put the answer this way: an item sold for a dollar in the CNMI in 1977 cost a full dollar more in 1990. At end-quarter of 1998, consumers needed 66 cents extra, or $2.66, to buy the same item, according to last year’s weighted Consumer Price Index issued by the Central Statistics Division.

Because of persistent inflation — the increase in prices from one period to the next — many don’t make good guesses. A fair estimate requires the CPI, something only a few carry around or commit to memory. Numbers would be gibberish if inflation isn’t factored in when comparing dollar amounts in different years. To compare accurately, one must convert all dollar amounts into same-year dollars.

In the 10 years to 1998, inflation in the CNMI averaged 3.97 percent a year. Although that sounds small, even moderate inflation adds up. Well, it doesn’t actually add up; it multiplies up. Inflation, like interest, compounds. Net result: Since 1977, when the Department of Commerce began to track prices of a market basket of goods and services, prices have gone up by 266.2 percent.

What’s more, because inflation is always with us‚ we tend to think that all prices have risen. That’s almost true. And that’s also uninformative. It doesn’t tell us whether the prices of particular goods have risen or fallen relative to prices in general. For instance, are eggs cheaper than they were 20 years ago? Or is gasoline more expensive than it was before OPEC drove up oil prices in 1973?

In the CNMI there’s a literally delightful reason for the depreciation, if you will, of the dollar. Let’s face it, too, that if a good life came with a lifetime guarantee, we’d all have it. But like everything else, it comes with a price. And in the CNMI, the price is quite high. In the 21 years since 1977, the cost for health and recreation has risen nearly six-fold. This type of spending has consistently crept up, outpacing the rate of increase in the other commodity groups of food, housing, transportation, and apparel and upkeep.

The health-and-recreation index consists of mostly medicine, dental and club fees, hygiene products, electronic appliances and movies. The index may have been driven upward by its electronics component, which carries higher import levies, said Dianne Luistro, the merchandising manager of Townhouse. Otherwise, she said, prices for the rest generally remained unchanged for the seven years that she had worked for the retail store.

There’s one interesting point about electronics that the CPI can’t take into account, that is, the quality improvements in existing products or the introduction of new ones. It matters much. Try this experiment. Browse through an old camera brochure. Then ask yourself whether you would rather have $500 to spend on an old version at the old prices, or $500 to spend on today’s camera at current prices. Some of the old products, like simple hand tools, may be a bargain at the old prices. But the comparison doesn’t make sense for new inventions like stereos and video recorders.

The dollar’s value had skidded, all right. But in the CNMI the situation arouses more comfort than alarm; it is motivated by spending on luxury — things only an extra cash will buy. Hold it right there. That’s how far the statistics division’s measure of a good life could get. Bank deposits begin to taper off at the third quarter of 1998.