Four score–and six days to go

Most of us in the Commonwealth are following Uncle Sam’s Presidential horse race every bit as closely as our mainland counterparts are.

And, yeah, I’m downright fixated on it for some strange reason. And I normally hate politics. Perhaps, like the hair that’s started growing out of my nose, this is a sign of middle age.

Another middle aged Ed– Ed Rollins, a well-known Republican strategist–said that next week’s Presidential election hangs on four states: Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I don’t have anything productive to do this morning, so I figured I’ll take a look at the polling data for these states. All such data I’m pulling from Rasmussen Research, which seems to be a respected and credible outfit.

Five hundred thirty eight electoral votes are up for grabs, and a candidate needs to win 270 of them to become El Presidente. Collectively, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan hold 87 electoral votes.

Taking the biggest fish first, Florida, with its 25 electoral votes, is a virtual tie: Bush is ahead by a scant one percent, with 46 percent of likely voters identifying with his camp, versus the 45 percent in favor of the Ozone Man. Bush’s brother, Jeb, is Florida’s governor, and you’d think that the brotherly coattails would have given Dubya a more substantial advantage. Well, I guess not.

Next comes Pennsylvania, where the Keystone state holds 23 electoral votes for the winner. Here, Bush leads by a 45 percent to 42 percent margin. Close–really close.

Moving to Pennsylvania’s west flank, we’ve got Ohio, with its 21 electoral votes. Ah, Ohio… I once spent a week there one day. If the state is tedious–and it is–so, too, are the polling results, where Bush’s 48 percent to 39 percent lead would seem to portend a slam dunk victory. Not much tension here, from the looks of things.

By contrast, both camps have a true nail biter on their hands in Michigan. Eighteen electoral votes are the plum here. This one’s a dead even heat, with 43 percent going to each candidate.

I can’t explain why there’s hair growing out of my nose, and I can’t explain why these four states are so darned important for this election. The former question I’ll raise with Dear Abby, who, I suspect, has even more follicular woes than I do. As for the latter issue, we’ll have to take Ed Rollins on his word.

Right now, the “four score” looks too close to call, though Bush has the slightest of leads. Given the shaky nature of the Commonwealth’s relations with the feds, any changes in the White House are going to be important ones for us. With just six days to go before the election, it’s an exciting race indeed.

Unless, of course, you’re in Ohio.