China: I know that I do not know

If you ever poke your snoot into mainland American news, you’ll note that China’s supposed aspirations for superpower status are the stuff of minor headlines. Stories of espionage, a nascent strategic nuclear arsenal, and a modernized military are commonplace stuff these days.

Every wooly headed American academic on television news shows is now an “expert” on China, seemingly able to glean from afar the inscrutable workings of this enigmatic minor empire. As for me, I believe only China knows what China is up to, which seems fair enough.

I’m just old enough to remember when President Nixon thawed relations with China, and, in fits and starts ever since, the American mind has been alternatively fixated on or in utter denial about China’s potential, both real, perceived, projected, pontificated, and pondered.

China’s military prowess doesn’t seem to be a credible threat to anyone except its immediate neighbors. If China tried to take Taiwan, China would have one embarrassing butt-kicking coming its way. In conventional terms for now, and for the next generation or two, China’s military doesn’t look to be much more than a large and inefficient peasant infantry.

As for the non-conventional, well, none of us civvies can project how many nuclear aces they’ll hold in the coming years. Still, a strategic nuclear threat isn’t always the be all and end all of military power. If it was, the United States wouldn’t have gotten so bloodied in Vietnam, and the Russians wouldn’t be getting their butts kicked in Chechnya.

So much for the military stuff. Commercially, China really is a wild card. Chinese businessmen are the economic life blood of many a country, including Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Malaysia is striking in this regard, as the crooked Malay politicians engage in constant corruption and nasty nepotism, while the Chinese business community quietly chugs along and keeps the wheels of commerce turning. I was impressed by these Chinese business operators in Malaysia, many of whom were well educated and well mannered, forced to live cheek to jowl with dirty third world stupidity. Somehow, they managed to keep everything on an even keel. Few Americans are that tough or that tenacious.

In terms of sheer commercial and economic potential, then, there’s no doubt that China holds a lot of aces. Whether these aces can ever be played in a free market–or anything remotely resembling one–is something that no American will ever be able to gauge. Hence the economic wild card status. Nobody will know what happens till it happens, and probably won’t know until well after its happens and someone explains it all to us.

Either way, the Commonwealth has a front seat to all of this action. Our commercial ties to Asia are, of course, strong. And our strategic location, militarily speaking, is sure to be noticed if and when the Admirals start eyeing China with concern. Meanwhile, we’ll casually read accounts from the American press, speculating about happenings that are just a virtual stone’s throw from our fair shores.

And as for me, your fair pundit, I know that I do not know much about China. Which is, for me, a piece of wisdom all on its own.

Stephens is an economist with Stephens Corporation, a professional organization in the NMI. His column appears three times a week: Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Mr. Stephens can be contacted via the following e-mail address: ed4Saipan@yahoo.com.