Resource wars?

If there is one thing the Commonwealth has in abundance, it’s an appreciation for utter finiteness of natural resources. Small islands have only so much land, local waters have only so many fish, and even when an abundance of stuff shows up (manufactured products from Asia and the United States), places to throw the packaging and garbage are scarce. Even beauty itself is finite, and nobody I know wants to see Saipan degenerate into a concrete eyesore on the order of parts of Guam or like the condominium hells of Florida. I’m not excusing the agenda of the anti-business crowd; the fact that enlightened conservation makes sense doesn’t mean that the eco-wackos do. Prosperity, not poverty, is the best possible way to husband the earth’s resources. Look at any rich and advanced city, then look at a poor city in a similar climate, and tell me which is cleaner and healthier all the way around.

Still, I suppose that we can only squeeze the planet so much. And with China’s continued industrial expansion, it looks to me like a global competition for resources might heat up. If the wars of last century were waged over the human longing for servitude (some wanted fascism, others, socialism), then perhaps the wars of this century will be fought over something more tangible: Resources.

Hey, why not? If you’re going to fight over something, oil, fresh water, food, and metals seem like a worthy point of contention. Advanced societies need lots of stuff to keep advancing. That’s just the way it is.

I’m not going to delve into the genuine economics of resource scarcity here; it’s a dry and technical field that can’t be hit with a well-aimed hip shot. But I will mention that one of the fathers of economic thinking, Thomas Malthus, pretty much hit the nail on the head in the 18th century when he pointed out that growing populations will eventually hit natural constraints on their growth, and then people will have to die off. Hey, it seems obvious enough to me. Humans aren’t all that different from bacteria when it comes right down to it. Actually, bacteria are better off, since they don’t need oil, medicine, and iron ore to live.

Much of the advanced world has grown so fat and sassy that it loses sight of the fact that resource scarcity is the basis for economics. If there was no scarcity, there would be no markets, since we’d already have everything we needed. Human nature is such that it alternates between complacency and panic, and I suspect that the “panic” mode might be hit during the foreseeable future. Instead of arguing over gay marriage and flag burning, the day may come when people are arguing over food and fuel rationing. In fact, that day will surely come, but I have no idea when. Hopefully, after I’m dead and gone, so I don’t have to watch that circus.

The CNMI won’t have a direct role in such a gig, but it may be at the fault line when the Big Boys start tussling over it. Meanwhile, China has been making inroads into Africa and South America, securing its supplies of oil and other stuff. Uncle Sam, at some point, might think that puts an unwelcome hand in the cookie jar. I don’t know much about China, but I suspect it is coherent enough to have given some thought to providing for its long-term resource needs.

In fact, it’s possible, I guess, that China may keep drifting into freer markets, while the Western world keeps drifting into socialism, and that China may wind up being the stronger economic player eventually. If you look at any top U.S. university, you’ll note that China is investing in scientific education while my brethren are soaking up ethnic studies, self-esteem, and other intellectual bubble gum that is of zero value in the free market. Our schools are therefore churning out entire generations of government employees, while China is churning out industrial leaders. Isn’t that sort of, well, reversed from what we used to consider the status quo? So, if China plays its cards right, it darned sure will need more natural resources. Lots of them.

And one such card would be having the military muscle necessary to become a global power, which China totally lacks now. So, any big resource wars are probably decades, if not an entire generation, away.

But if the 20th century was all about fighting for ideology, then maybe the 21st century will be all about fighting for economic survival. That makes a certain level of sense. The way things are shaping up, you can bet that the Mariana Islands are going to be valued as a strategic asset. Guam is hosting an increased U.S. military presence, so perhaps we are at the first stage of a very long and serious game.

(Ed Stephens, Jr. is an economist and columnist for the Saipan Tribune. Ed4Saipan@yahoo.com)