Long winter in paradise?

The Issue: Our apparent inability to read and digest regional economic recovery efforts as to misread real situations.

Our View: Need to buckle down to studying realistic regional economic indicators before announcing that the storm has past these isles.

Over the last three years, small and large businesses have scaled down the number of employees in order to deal with the severe drop in business activities as a result of the Asian Crisis.

The current experience shows in no uncertain terms the fickleness of the tourism industry the NMI so detrimentally relies upon as one of two major economic holy grails.

At the same time, it seems our memories are so short as to forget previous experiences when this sector was adversely affected by the Gulf War and the reduction of global oil production. Such experiences demonstrate, time and again, the fickleness of tourism, its fate largely determined by global events.

We’re going through the same experience today as a result of the Asian Crisis. But we’re off promoting these isles a bit disoriented, if not, ignorant of various economic phenomena in Japan and Asia calling for extra caution on optimism. We aren’t even sure what to make of their implications, i.e., major corporate restructuring that translate into more than 30,000 jobless people before this year ends and the shrink in the Japanese economy (see story under Economy) on this issue.

Even with free vouchers issued to Japanese consumers to encourage spending, most have refused to do so in light of the need to replenish family savings first before braving other expenditures. As such, family vacations have focused on domestic resorts throughout Japan. They are not about to venture beyond the jetway when conditions dictate prudence.

These trends are not necessarily beyond our nimble minds, but it seems we’ve simply ignored them in our blind quest to revive an issue to which we have no control whatsoever. This industry isn’t going to fare any better for the next five years beyond optimistic though suspect pronouncements that Japan has turned the corner.

Friends, we must look beyond conventional wisdom to map-out the economic future of these isles. It warrants the proactive participation of visionaries who know what wealth and jobs creation are all about. And if we miss the boat this time, we’d be turning the warmth of paradise into one long and cold winter. Si Yuus Maase`!