Squinting in the crystal ball

We can’t contemplate the CNMI’s economic future without, unfortunately, looking at some broad political forces. Namely, we can’t ignore the feud between the Commonwealth and Uncle Sam.

I’m no political wonk, but I enjoy being armchair speculator as much as the next guy, and here’s my speculation about what the near future holds:

One: Big time U.S. media attention. Somebody, from some medium–probably television–is going to come to the CNMI and give us the third degree. There will a big, prime-time expose that won’t exactly be flattering.

Two: Big time FBI attention. At least one U.S. representative has warned the CNMI that certain kinds of funny business aren’t going to be tolerated. The only way I can envision this type of thing being pursued is for the FBI to increase its staffing locally so it can untangle some high profile issues.

Three: An end to the easy times in the U.S. House. True, some forces in the U.S. have dug a hole for the Commonwealth, but the Commonwealth dug the other half of the hole for itself and seems determined to jump on in. If the Commonwealth counters every iota of criticism with “well, we’ll just all go on welfare then,” it won’t find the American electorate very sympathetic.

Meanwhile, a sense of economic complacency seems to be enjoying a renaissance. “Asia is recovering,” goes the reasoning, “so the CNMI will recover, too.”

Well, let’s take the first premise first. Yes, ASIA in general is recovering from the economic dumps, but JAPAN is the Commonwealth’s primary tourism market, and the Japanese economy has not recovered to any substantial degree.

And why not flog the first premise even more here? Asia’s–or, more accurately, Japan’s– financial woes aren’t the only reason the CNMI hit the financial skids. Anti-investment policies here put us on the global Bozo list. Meanwhile, Guam focused on gaining tourism market share, and airlines were happy to fly over Saipan to service a locale that knew what side its economic bread is buttered on.

Which brings us to the second premise, that the CNMI is magically destined to automatically recover economically when the world-at-large seems more accommodating. Sure, a rising tide lifts all boats, but it doesn’t do much good if your boat has a leak in it. And, economically speaking, we’ve got some substantial leaks.

Meanwhile, fuel prices have just about tripled, and our fragile transportation ties to Asia are going to get even more strained. I was hoping for a smoother year this time around, but it looks like there will be more strain to contend with on a lot of fronts.

Garapan, Tokyo, Washington, and even Saudi Arabia; businesses, tourists, politicians, and oil sheiks…they’re all images in the crystal ball, and the year 2000 is shaping up to be an interesting one indeed.