Disturbance brewing south of the Marianas

After weeks of intense heat and extreme drought conditions, the National Weather Service reports that a disturbance is brewing south of the Marianas

According to NWS recent Regional Outlook report, an area of disturbed weather has persisted in the Micronesia region south of Palau, Yap, and Chuuk for a couple weeks.

“A near-equatorial trough (NET) has been the focus of showers, thunderstorms and several weak surface circulations (Invests 90W, 91W and 92W). Today, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) opened a new area for observation, Invest 93W. Currently rated as sub-low, 93W is not expected to significantly develop in the next couple of days. However, numerical forecast solutions differ significantly beyond Friday,” said NWS.

Due to the activity down south, the Marianas can expect a generally dry trade-wind pattern will persist across the Marianas through the weekend, with partly to mostly sunny skies and isolated showers. In addition, the Marianas can expect moderate trades through the weekend with a moderate risk for rip currents along east facing reefs.

Ultimately, NWS says at this time, weekend forecasts for this region are with high uncertainty and low confidence, all pending on whether or not formation occurs with the present 93W.

“The American GFS model, traditionally most aggressive in developing tropical cyclones, shows steady development over the outer islands of Chuuk and Yap States Friday and Saturday, with the potential tropical cyclone then heading into the Philippine Sea between Yap and Guam early in the coming week. At this time, the GFS remains an outlier as other forecast models indicate significantly less development through the weekend, with a tropical disturbance pushing west northwest near Palau and Yap by early next week. We continue to wait for several things to happen at the surface. Forecast conditions will vary significantly across the western Micronesia region, depending on whether you’re in Palau, Yap Proper, within the Chuuk Lagoon, or across the outer islands of Yap and Chuuk States. Expect periods of showers, thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall, and some gusty winds while the NET and 93W remain in the area. Keep up to date with Western Micronesia Weather Forecasts as conditions evolve in the coming days.

For now, NWS encourages everyone in western Chuuk State, Yap State, the Republic of Palau, and the Marianas to monitor forecasts for any updates or changes noted in the region as 93W develops.

“It is likely that this will eventually come to fruition, and when it does, we will lean more toward the possible development of a tropical cyclone,” said NWS.

NWS