Heavy rain expected over the weekend
CNMI and Guam residents are advised to secure loose items outside their homes and prepare for several inches of rain and rough seas this weekend as a weak tropical disturbance is said to be currently developing near the Federated States of Micronesia and may affect the Marianas.
According to the National Weather Service as of yesterday, the disturbance, centered northeast of Weno, Chuuk, is being monitored closely by meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam. The system, designated as Invest 99W, has been slowly moving westward and is expected to continue on this path over the next few days. Forecast models are currently split on whether it will strengthen into a significant tropical system or remain a weak disturbance as it passes near the Marianas late Sunday into Monday.
NWS Guam meteorologist Landon Aydlett said while some forecast models indicate the possibility of a tropical depression or weak tropical storm near Guam and the CNMI by Sunday, more aggressive models suggest the potential for a typhoon near the CNMI.
However, at present, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has rated the system as “sub-low” for development, meaning significant intensification is not expected within the next 48 hours.
“We still have some wiggle room for this disturbance to evolve, and there is a wide range of speculation,” said Aydlett. “But this will be another system to watch very closely, especially as we approach the weekend.”
In addition to the uncertainty surrounding the storm’s intensity, the NWS has issued a Hydrologic Outlook for Guam and the CNMI, warning of the potential for heavy rainfall between Saturday night and Tuesday. The region could see anywhere from 6 to 11 inches of rain over the multi-day event, which could result in flooding in low-lying areas.
“We may be up against another two-part weather event this week,” Aydlett explained, referencing September’s storm activity, which involved a combination of tropical cyclones and a subsequent monsoon surge. “While indications are that the monsoon associated with this system won’t be as strong as last month’s, we still need to prepare.”
Residents of Guam and the CNMI are advised to secure loose outdoor items like tarps, trash bins, and canopies ahead of the potential weekend storm. Small craft advisories may also be issued as seas are expected to become hazardous as early as Saturday, with high surf likely to follow.
For now, the NWS urges the public to stay informed by regularly checking updates on the evolving situation. With the potential for rapid changes in weather conditions, Aydlett encourages everyone to keep a close watch on forecasts and be prepared for what could come next.
For more updates, visit the NWS Guam webpage at www.weather.gov/gum.
Landon Aydlett
