Rota expects 55K tourists by 2012

Travelers visiting Rota would increase to 55,000 annually by 2012, five years after the expected completion of the $22-million Rota International Airport runway extension.

This forecast represents a 50-percent growth to the 36,000 tourists currently visiting Rota every year. It is based on the Commonwealth Ports Authority’s plan to add 1,000 feet to the existing runway, which is 6,000 feet.

Previously, CPA had projected that passenger activity at the Rota airport would increase to a maximum of 58,000 by 2007 and 120,000 by 2012 once the runway extension was completed.

But CPA noted that the master plan forecasts are “probably not realistic” because they assumed that there would be a 2,600-foot extension to the existing runway. Such extension would accommodate direct overseas flights using wide-bodied aircraft such as the Boeing 747.

CPA, in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration, however has opted for a shorter runway because of the high estimated costs of the original proposal and because the benefit-cost analysis did not show net economic benefits for the lower forecasts of passenger activity.

Estimated to cost $10 million less, the 1,000-feet extension is intended to serve modern, long-haul aircraft such as the Boeing 767 or 757.

“While the present proposed runway extension of 1,000 feet may preclude the use of wide-bodied aircraft such as the Boeing 747 from direct overseas flights from Asia to Rota, the proposed 1,000-foot extension will make it possible for the newer generation of passenger aircraft such as the Boeing 767 and 757 to fly directly from China, Japan, Korea and perhaps other places of origin to Rota with a commensurate increase in passenger activity in future years,” according to CPA consultants.

Construction is scheduled to begin this year and will be finished within two years.

The revised forecast “is a reasonable estimate because it is based on a compounded annual growth in visitor arrivals of 4 percent…which is the historic growth rate for the CNMI,” CPA said.

Based on the adjusted forecast, the number of tourists visiting Rota would increase by 10,000 in 2007, immediately after the completion of the runway project.

By 2017, Rota would receive 67,000 visitors. This would steadily increase to 82,000 by 2022 and 96,000 by 2026.

Aside from these forecasts, no benefit cost analysis is available for the presently proposed runway project. Such study is not required for a 1,000-feet extension.