Cargo tells a story

As I noted last week, you can’t be both “anti-garment” and “pro-tourism” in the CNMI. One highlight of this truth comes via the fact that garment exports snugged in the bellies of passenger airlines provide, essentially, a subsidy to the passenger side of things.

As Asia’s productivity shakes the world, and as “just in time” inventory management keeps rolling along, air cargo has become one mondo important gig. Just for the heck of it, I took a look at some air cargo numbers and thought you might enjoy the perspective they offer. In sum, we’ll see that Asia has claimed center stage on this. It bodes well for Asia’s economies, and it shows you just how lucky Saipan is to be sitting at the front doorstep of so much economic activity.

Of course, Saipan refuses to take advantage of that blessing, but let’s not dwell on that today. Let’s look at some big-picture stuff instead.

Of the top five cargo airports in the world, three are in Asia. The world’s busiest (shipping the most tonnage) is Memphis, Tenn., where global giant FedEx is based. But if current trends continue, I expect that Hong Kong, now in second place, will overtake Memphis for the top position this year. Wow. Talk about yet another Asian economic success story.

The rest of the top five goes like so: Tokyo’s Narita airport is the third busiest; Anchorage, Alaska, comes in forth (it’s a stopping-over point from Asia), and Korea’s Inchon airport comes in fifth.

I’m an eternal optimist when it comes to Korea’s economy, and making the top five in air cargo shipments is sure a boost to that optimism. When it comes to sheer intelligence, an energetic ability to learn, and innate business drive, Koreans have a lot to be proud of. I competed with these guys, and other top Asian talent, in college; in fact, my very first economics professor at UCLA was, indeed, a visiting prof from Korea. It was obvious to me way back then that Asia was carving out a keen intellectual edge for itself.

Back to my air cargo list. When three of the world’s top five cargo airports are in Asia, there’s a lesson there, somewhere.

Furthermore, all three of these airports experienced double-digit growth in cargo tonnage last year. Hong Kong, 15.7 percent growth. Tokyo’s Narita, 10.1 percent And Inchon manages to edge aside mighty Hong Kong with a 15.8 percent growth rate for ‘04.

Of the top 30 cargo airports in the world, the fastest growing is (drum roll…) Shanghai. Try this growth on for size: 38.1 percent. Yikes! As of last year it was number 14 in terms of tonnage, but this year it looks like it will easily leapfrog up to the top 10, and might even be close to making the top five.

In fact, interestingly enough, all the airports on the top 30 list grew in 2004. Yep–all of them, not one sinker in the bunch.

And if that doesn’t say something about air cargo, nothing does. And if this whole air cargo gig doesn’t say something about Asia, nothing does.

Of course, fuel costs are a major financial bummer this year, and will be an obvious impediment to air cargo activity. And yet…and yet…from what I hear on the Asian side of things, air cargo is still growing, though I don’t yet know at what overall rate.

Meanwhile, U.S. imports from China, measured in dollar value, grew almost 30 percent last year, the highest growth rate since 1998, which is as far back as I care to look on this. As long as Americans spend money that they don’t have (loaned to them by foreigners, among which are the Chinese), I guess they’ll buy like there is no tomorrow.

Well, you’re now an expert in the global air cargo industry. The figures tell an interesting story, and this is one industry I am watching ever closer these days.