Another defense briefing from the Last Command Post

The Asia-Pacific arms race has cranked up another notch, and, in fact, it’s already on afterburners for 2012. So I will once again assume command of my beach chair at the Last Command Post, whereupon I shall deliver a strategic briefing.

Or, maybe I’ll just talk a lot.

Anyway, here’s the buzz for the week: What is being trumpeted as one of the world’s largest military aviation deals was unveiled a couple of days ago, with India slated to drop a reported $11 billion to acquire 126 French Rafale fighters. This isn’t a direct issue for Saipan, but a weapons purchase of this size does introduce a few points worth heeding for our regional military situation, since the entire area is a quilt of all sorts of national rivalries and tensions.

Incidentally, the various news stories about the Rafale deal are still sorting themselves out. I’ve seen the value of the deal reported as various amounts, and there are various opinions about how likely the deal is to fall through. Still, there’s obviously something in the works.

Saipan can be excused for not thinking about France or India very often, if at all. But it’s an instructive example of how the broader Asia-Pacific area is a multi-polar proposition, where it’s more than just the “superpowers” influencing the grand equation.

So, though it’s easy to keep your eye on the ball when there’s just one football and two teams, the Pacific’s situation is a lively strategic billiards game with over a dozen players taking shots.

Though it’s trendy in the U.S. to dismiss France as inconsequential, France is the world’s third largest nuclear power, according to the warhead tally listed in the Status of World Nuclear Forces 2011 report by the Federation of American Scientists. France has a lot of storied history in the Pacific, and it’s also one of the globe’s blue chip weapons and aerospace dealers.

So it’s little wonder that France keeps popping up where the action is. This year’s India action was proceeded by a deal signed last year to sell $1.7 worth of amphibious assault vessels to Russia. Yes, that’s right, the Russian navy is buying French ships, and serious warships at that, not little coastal showboats.

Uncle Sam is a French defense customer as well. The U.S. Coast Guard has operated French aircraft for decades, notably Dolphin helicopters and Falcon jets.

Speaking of aircraft, on the civvy side of things, at least three French helicopters have been operated on Saipan over the years. And much of the Commonwealth’s airline service comes via aircraft assembled in, yes, France.

Looking back at the military realm, big bucks are being invested in Asian defense by nations small and large. I don’t have a comprehensive list of the action, but I’ll just note from memory a few big deals that are in the works, though things can always change so I make no guarantees: Indonesia has ordered three Korean submarines for over $1 billion in total, and it is also reportedly ordering 100 tanks (yes, tanks) from Holland. Vietnam has ordered six Russian submarines in a $3 billion dollar deal, and this year it should start taking delivery of the first of a dozen Russian SU-30 fighter jets it bought. Japan recently placed an order in the range of $5 billion to $7 billion for Lockheed’s high-tech F-35 fighter, and South Korea is also on the prowl for more jet fighters, ready to drop $7.4 billion on the endeavor.

Whew! That’s just the tip of the iceberg, just a few of the players involved, and merely the stuff that happened to catch my attention.

Because of the number of players involved, and the amount of serious hardware going every which way, and some nagging economic puzzles, I think the Asia-Pacific military future is impossible to predict. And I’m a guy who likes to make brash predictions. But this one’s got me stumped.

Well, this concludes my briefing. I’ll fold up my beach chair now as everyone piles in their cars to steer for happy hour.

And once again the long shadows descend on the Last Command Post, which resumes its silent vigil.

Visit Ed Stephens Jr. at EdStephensJr.com. His column runs every Friday.