Zany, mad-cap antics
As the economic Panic of 2008 continues, I hope that long time Saipan Tribune readers have remained aloof from the mob hysteria and zany financial antics. After all, I was one of very few economics writers in the world’s print medium to warn, years in advance, that the U.S. would suffer a meltdown from its ingestion of so much toxic debt.
The Panic isn’t news. It was inevitability.
In fact, if the inevitable did NOT happen, well, that would be news. It would mean that the laws of economics had been repealed. I can assure you that they have not been repealed. Ignored, by some, yes. Not understood by most, yes again. But repealed? Nope. Although the timing of the meltdown couldn’t be predicted years ago, the event itself was entirely foreseeable.
OK, so what next for the Commonwealth? This is, after all, an event of global significance.
Well, this is a substantial opportunity, or rather, a reminder of that opportunity. For the Commonwealth’s “leaders” it won’t be heeded, but many Saipan Tribune readers, by contrast, are already heeding it.
The opportunity, which isn’t exactly a brilliant insight, in one shot: Although Asia (by which I mean industrial Asia) will have some ugly news, even disasters, to deal with from the U.S. financial problems, Asia will, in the long run, emerge stronger, will be the world’s preeminent economic player, and will likewise be brimming with ever-richer tourists looking for sand and sunshine. Whew. That’s everything of local significance boiled down to one run-on sentence.
As for the Commonwealth, by which I mean the local government and its dedicated and dependent little cells in the electorate, it will, as always, be business-as-usual. The outside world, including the U.S. economy, or the Asian economy, or the global economy, means nothing to these guys. Politics is the sole extent of this conceptual universe. “Bota, Bota, Bota.”
As for other folks, though, I find it exciting to correspond with such an internationally engaged readership. That’s why I like e-mail from readers. We’re in for a great ride in the coming years. You business managers and owners on Saipan, in Guam, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and even (sometimes) in Vietnam, well, you ARE the future. When you email me and give me your observations, your ideas, and even some highlights of your projects, this really helps me fit the pieces of the big puzzle together.
Part of the magic, indeed, of the Commonwealth is the sprawling web of Asia-Pacific professionals who have footholds in the CNMI, and who have stuff going all on over the region. In addition, Saipan has many alumni who have moved onto more functional economies who still follow Commonwealth affairs, and who still swap insights and information with me.
So I know that many of you have been betting on the Asian Century. You are making smart moves. Risky moves, in some cases, but such is the nature of thinking a few steps ahead. I mean, when the alternative is not thinking at all, well, there you have it.
Speaking of which, many (not all, but surprisingly many) of your counterparts in the Prozac Nation have ceded management of their own lives to any institution or demagogue who had a slick sales pitch. The Panic of 2008 is probably in its infancy; just wait until the masses figure out that their pensions are worth less than my old gym socks. Some odd notion in the states goes that if you collectivize something, then everybody gets more of it, since the pile is so big. The more vague things are, and the more raw emotion that is injected into the discussions, the more that the masses will demand economic schemes. So, plenty more schemes are on the way.
As the Panic of 2008 plays out, the volatility will make short-term predictions difficult. But, beneath it all, we will see the U.S. following one path, and most of industrial Asia following another. The world’s important economies are, at long last, showing tangible evidence of the social pressures that have been building for decades. This show is just getting started. So get some popcorn, it will be very interesting.
[I]Ed is a pilot, economist, and writer. He holds a degree in economics from UCLA and is a former U.S. naval officer. His column runs every Friday. Visit Ed at TropicalEd.com and SaipanBlog.com.[/I]
