Pierce: Outmigration feeds on itself

The Cabinet official responsible for seeking funding and facilitating the data for the recently released economic impact study said he believes outmigration will have a larger effect on the CNMI than reported.

“Outmigration feeds on itself, and makes a bad situation worse,” said Richard A. Pierce, the governor’s special assistant for economic affairs and trade relations. “I totally agree that outmigration of U.S. citizens from the CNMI, combined with the 15,000 apparel industry personnel repatriated to their point of hire, will play the largest role in determining declines in business activity by only aggravating the economic situation.”

The study, Economic Impact of Federal Laws on the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, uses the assumption that the U.S.-qualified resident population will remain relatively constant between 2005 and 2015.

It is an arguable assumption, the report notes. Preliminary evidence, according to the report, shows that as many as 4,000 U.S.-qualified residents have moved to the states in response to the economic downturn. The study does not state the years involved in the figure.

Pierce said he estimates the CNMI will have lost more than 2,500 U.S. citizen residents from 2006 through 2008. He gathered his data from a variety of sources, including the CNMI Election Board on voter registration; CUC utility permanent disconnections; the Retirement Fund’s report showing fund withdrawals; the Scholarship Fund; the Border Management System showing residents not returning after six months; business licensing declines; the decline in U.S. taxpayers; and private surveys showing business closures between 2005 and 2007.

Pierce said he believes a large percentage of U.S. citizens, college age and slightly older, are leaving.

“This is not to say that it would never happen when better schools and opportunities are elsewhere, but it is greater than normal as a result of the current economic depression,” he said. “These people are depriving the CNMI of its most able business owners and wage earners.”

The study states that the loss of local residents would further damage the economy in two ways. First, it would reduce the number of available people for the work force, and second, the CNMI would lose its “best and brightest,” further reducing the CNMI ‘s chances for economic advancement in the future, according to the report.

One of the authors of the study, Malcolm McPhee, will meet with Gov. Benigno R. Fitial on Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2008, at 11am. On the same day, at 1:30pm, McPhee will put on a presentation “exclusively” for the members of the Legislature and the governor’s Cabinet on the economic report, according to a memorandum that the governor issued yesterday. The Fitial administration is still ironing out details of a planned presentation for the members of the community, Pierce said.