June 13, 2025

A year of mild pleasant surprises has come to a close, but its unresolved questions would generate quakes this year. Where are the fault lines and could we approach them like futurists using due diligence in our review?

Turn the page to 2017 and there we find critically important and challenging issues trumpeting the same themes since last year.

Uppermost is the mounting deficit and obligations that increases by leaps and bounds. It dims our ability to deal with them. It portends likely financial hickups or paralysis up ahead.

But there’s guarded hope that something would break for the better. However, a lot depends on management skills and experience handling what’s left of investments! The trickle expansion in revenue could very well be the last of it before it heads south permanently.

There are major issues that aren’t necessarily visible that could slowly paralyze the NMI over the next two years. The tap dance between Trump and Jinpiñg could easily turn out of sync, if not explosive.

The relationship between Trump and Jinpiñg reminds me of the saying, “When two giants fight the grass gets crushed.” The answer is obvious and any discussion about being reduced to fiscal paralysis is a given. How would we fare after elbowing Japan and Korea out of the islands?

Turn north and review the implications of the eventual opening of the casino industry in Japan. It would build competitive casinos. It has mature basic infrastructure to do it. We thought we did but don’t have anything to our name except the comforts of ad hoc disposition. We don’t even plan for our future. It’s all “que sera” in the stormy sea of ad hoc undertaking.

The decision of the U.S. Senate to skip the CW-2 request is a loud message it has no interest considering the so-called dire need. The national Republican troops have had enough with Obama’s failed amnesty program. This plus a local increase in the minimum wage would adversely affect the small business community here. Have these been given due diligence?

Land compensation would be a big fiscal challenge given its sizeable monetary requirement of over $80 million. It’s good, though, that the path to resolution is now moving somewhere. Hope that the pile of debts and obligations would sail through without any adverse effects on the quality of public services. It’s a definite challenge!

Seismic rupture: There are seismic rumblings jolting I Deni or Capital Hill. Learned it’s an eruption between Raffy and Biktot as the two individually eye prospects for the 2018 gubernatorial contest. Must have erupted into a love-hate relationship level by now. It’s the buzz on the hill. Will it be the same tandem or a parting of the ways?

Both have excess baggage to contend with as they plan their next move. The former must answer questions about nepotism, the hallmark of his tenure; while the narcissistic Biktot the failure of everything he touches. Though the local court has absolved him of the $400,000 lawsuit, he still owes taxpayers their dues, if there’s still some semblance of conscience left in him. Then there’s the long parade of other lawsuits awaiting him in federal court.

Raffy is more empathetic than Biktot. If you’re in his circle of political loyalists you’re in good hands. But both had to muddle along at the helm without a public mandate fouled by an acquiescence of the AG’s opinion. I call their tenure “alleged” heads of state. Well, the AG had the multitude sowing the mess he’s sought!

Interesting to gauge if the guys haven’t individually or collectively squandered the company store? Are they still in tune with issues that are now the mouthwash of discussion among the multitude? Or has the elitist culture blinded their once humble demeanor?

While Raffy shops around for a partner, Biktot knows that his 400 votes from Rota piled by the loss of confidence at home aren’t forte he could bring to the table. Raffy would be scratching his head all the way to jet ways to think through the glaring liability while junketing on our dime.

Old retirement: The new longstanding obligation is the old retirement program that is still owed some $779 million. It went broke when governors, since 1982, simply failed to pay employer’s contribution into the program.

Its bankruptcy was fast forwarded when two new ones were implemented—defined contribution and defined benefit—nearly 10 years ago. The old program was abandoned when its members moved into one of two programs. It further drained the old system of money for retirees paid for by current employees.

Most members withdrew their contributions and subsequently joined the ongoing system in place. This too drained the old program beyond our wildest imaginings. Some have evacuated to greener pasture. Some enrolled with the U.S. Social Security program, others skipped convinced they’d get paid at age 65. Well, only contributing members could reap the benefits of SS monthly stipend.

The issue that seems to have escaped current retirement members is their monthly pension upon exiting government service. Have you looked into your future monthly income or annuity? If you were paying for real estate loan and real estate insurance or first family home, would there be enough for this and other family obligations like a family car and healthcare cost? It’s time to probe the issue just so you know you understand what’s coming down the pike.

Don’t forget, social security benefits are limited to contributing members only. The fallacy that you’d get paid automatically at age 65 without contribution is dead wrong. Check this issue out before it’s too late. I bring these issues to you for your own benefit. Discuss them with the settlement fund and SSS.

4 thoughts on “Expectations for 2017

  1. Could you demonstrate how much has been paid the bankrupt or old retirement program just so we get the figures correct? What percentage of the $45 million for the Settlement Fund is earmarked to pare down debts owed the old system?

    Re SS, there’s the assumption that one gets paid even without contribution. It’s just a red flag!

    1. The total CNMI Government accrued debt to the retirees is known as the “unfunded liability”. This incorporates any and all historical payments made to date — numbers I do not have available.

      In other words, the past and future debt is all combined (and the retirees have no legal right to enforce payment of the 25%).

      According to the District Court for the NMI litigation settlement, the CNMI remains liable for 75% of this debt, payable to the NMISF as follows:

      CNMI Annual Payments
      FY 2014 25,000,000
      FY 2015 27,000,000
      FY 2016 30,000,000

      Projected CNMI Payments (current mortality)
      FY 2017 33,000,000
      FY 2018 45,000,000
      FY 2019 44,000,000
      FY 2020 43,000,000
      FY 2021 42,000,000
      FY 2022 41,000,000
      FY 2023 40,000,000
      FY 2024 39,000,000
      FY 2025 39,000,000
      FY 2026 39,000,000
      FY 2027 39,000,000
      FY 2028 39,000,000
      FY 2029 38,750,000
      FY 2030 38,500,000
      FY 2031 38,250,000

      At this point (plus or minus a few years, depending on mortality), the entire NMISF balance will have been expended, and the CNMI will be on a pay-as-you-go basis, estimated as follows:

      FY 2032 37,111,643
      FY 2033 35,711,370
      FY 2034 34,057,187
      FY 2035 32,380,998
      FY 2036 30,672,780
      FY 2037 28,955,717
      FY 2038 27,242,668
      FY 2039 25,527,766
      FY 2040 23,825,992
      FY 2041 22,154,447
      FY 2042 20,518,522
      FY 2043 18,919,335
      FY 2044 17,368,982
      FY 2045 15,873,891
      FY 2046 14,438,670
      FY 2047 13,070,555
      FY 2048 11,773,892
      FY 2049 10,553,446
      FY 2050 9,408,942
      FY 2051 8,343,320
      FY 2052 7,357,223
      FY 2053 6,450,492
      FY 2054 5,622,192
      FY 2055 4,870,645

      I got these figures from the 29 December 2015 actuarial valuation report (as of 30 September 2015) by Milliman at the NMISF website.

      Note the big jump in FY 2018, effective 1 October 2017, from $33M to $45M.

      I agree, you are wise to educate our community, and especially our NMISF annuitants, about Social Security. Thank you.

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