A developing tropical disturbance north of Chuuk in the Federated States of Micronesia is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.
Based on the information received from the National Weather Service in Guam and compiled at the CNMI Emergency Operations Center-State Warning Point, the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center means that the formation of a tropical cyclone is possible within the next 24 hours.
The circulation is centered north of Chuuk, roughly 400 miles east-southeast of Guam. The circulation is moving west-northwest at 13 mph.
This disturbance is expected to strengthen as it heads near or through the Marianas by the end of this week. This disturbance is known as Invest Area 99w and is still in the formative stage, and questions remain in the track, how quickly the circulation will strengthen, and how quickly will it move. The latest guidance suggests some type of circulation passing near or through the Marianas.
Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds are likely until Friday. Although it’ll highly depend on how organized the system is and where it tracks, current estimates call for 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph are possible in the stronger showers and thunderstorms. Continue to monitor the forecast, as changes are likely.
The CNMI can expect mostly cloudy weather with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms starting last night. East winds are expected to rise to 10 to 15 mph with a 40% chance of showers.
Weather forecasts from Thursday through Saturday is expected to be cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Southeast winds are expected to reach 10 to 15 mph with a 50 percent chance of showers.