The Marianas will experience extreme to severe dry weather in the next few months, according to a forecast from the National Weather Services in Tiyan, Guam. According to a drought statement from NWS, drought continues to intensify across much of Micronesia.
“A drier than normal trade-wind pattern has persisted across much of Micronesia the past few months. Although the pattern has been typical for this time of year, rainfall has been inadequate for many islands. This has been primarily due to a fairly weak [Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone]. Additionally, anomalously warm water has persisted near the dateline the past several months. This warmer than normal water has encouraged convection near the dateline and suppressed convection farther west over much of Micronesia, especially far western Micronesia. This includes Yap state, the Republic of Palau, and the Mariana Islands,” the forecast stated.
NWS sees the drier-than-normal weather to continue in for the next few months.
“All guidance points to continued dry weather with only a few weak disturbances providing a few showers at times. The National Multi-Model Ensemble continues to suggest drier than normal weather will continue for the next month or two. This is consistent with the synoptic pattern,” NWS stated.
Due to the drought, the Marianas can expect 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain in the next 10 days.
Islands that will experience extreme short-term drought to severe short-term drought include Guam, Saipan, Tinian, Rota, Wotje, Utirik, Ulithi, Woleai, Fananu and Hall islands, Namonuito islands, Western Chuuk islands, Ailinglapalap, and Kwajalein.
There is are no official water conservation measures in effect for the Mariana Islands. Saipan, however, is most susceptible for impacted groundwater, but officials report water levels are still above thresholds for concern.