The National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, expects slightly less activity in this year’s rainy season compared to 2018 and a lower probability of category 4 or 5 typhoons passing through the Marianas.
According to an updated prediction from the NWS, the updated probability is because it doesn’t see the El Niño weather phenomenon lasting until the end of this year.
For the remainder of the year, NWS predicts a 40% chance of getting a more active than normal typhoon season, 40% chance of getting a normal typhoon season, and a 20% chance of getting a less active typhoon season.
NWS predicts each island could experience one or more severe tropical storm, with sustained winds of 50 to 73 mph.
For Saipan, NWS expects the island to experience a severe tropical storm in late July and August and one or two typhoons from October to December.
These predictions could, however, still change as the year progresses, the NWS said.
In a June 2019 article on the Saipan Tribune, NWS projected a 50% chance of a more active-than-normal season for this year’s typhoon season.
In 2018, the Pacific region experienced 36 tropical cyclones. Many of the tropical depressions from last year formed across Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and a couple in the Marshall Islands, while the major typhoons occurred near the Marianas and over the Philippine Sea to the west.
The most notorious storms of last year, according to NWS, were Super Typhoon Yutu and Typhoon Mangkhut, which both directly impacted the CNMI.
The predictions, although specifically focused on the Marianas, may also affect neighboring islands so islands across Micronesia should expect a season similar to 2018.