Japan travels may edge slightly up

The largest travel wholesaler in Japan has projected a 0.1 percent increase in overseas Japanese travel for this year compared to 1998 brought about by the expected strong demand from family and middle age group travelers who were apparently less affected by the recession.

Japan Travel Bureau Inc., estimates domestic travel to increase by 0.5 percent or a total of 320,320,000 over the previous year. JTB has two affiliate agencies operating in the Northern Marianas — Pacific Micronesia Inc. and Tasi Tours.

This year, Tasi Tours projects a 10 percent drop in tourist haul from Japan this year compared to 1998 as consumers remain gloomy because of the ongoing recession.

The move to use national holidays to create long (three-day) weekends is expected to stimulate an increase in travel demand, JTB said.

Despite the significant decline in travel of single women in their 20s and 30s in 1998, JTB believes that their desire to travel still remains strong and may no longer postpone their plans to spend vacation overseas.

Average expenditure on travel per person is put at $423 which is a 3.2 percent drop. “Prices for package tours cannot get much lower for they seem to have already been pared to the bone. However, the widespread acceptance of these prices will probably make them into some kind of basic standard or floor level,” JTB said.

On overseas travel, the average expenditure is pegged at $2,774 or 2.1 percent down for 1999. Although the amount is still expected to drop, JTB said it will not decline by as much as last year.

The campaign of the Ministry of Transport to travel within Japan among Japanese and long holidays is expected to boost domestic travel but average expenditure on domestic travel is still projected to go down by 3.6 percent this year to $308.

JTB noted that the number of Japanese traveling overseas declined every month compared to the previous year for 14 straight months from September 1997 to October 1998.

Since the survey on Japanese travelers began in 1964 by JTB, there have been only two other years in which overseas travelers registered an annual decline — in 1980 following the second oil price hike and 1991 due to the Gulf War.

Last year, the number of domestic travelers dropped 1.9 percent or a total of 318,720,000 the first such annual decline in the last three years since 1995. Although low priced packages were popular in Japan, the sluggish demand for the corporate sector contributed to the overall decline.