Hour of decision in tomorrow’s election

The so-called “political fever” has skyrocketed beyond 104 degrees. The emotion of this midterm election would carry through the wee hours of Sunday morning. Most would be bone tired but would brew fresh pots of coffee to await the final results of this century’s last midterm political warfare. Both candidates and supporters would be sitting on the edge until the calming waters of the final tally is reported separating the men from the boys.

The more dominant republican with well greased political machinery would recapture a comfortable majority. You may disagree (and sometime I find myself disagreeing with guess who: Me, Myself and I), but such is the trend that would begin to be a challenge for the GOP in the first gubernatorial race in the Year 2000. It’s a fearfully dark road that I’ve not been able to pry open although understandably, all must await crossing the bridge until we get there.

Senate Race, Saipan: Incumbent Senator Juan P. Tenorio (Morgen) would emerge a 3-1 favorite over challenger Ramon S. Guerrero (Kumoi). Here’s why: Morgen and the GOP political machinery has greater political base throughout the villages than the faltering splinter group we know of as the Reform. Yes, Guerrero may have successfully dumped his frustrations over spilled milk (all his own making), but it is far from sufficient to warrant “change” in guard. My congratulations to Morgen and better luck next time Ray.

Precinct I: While I still give the GOP an edge in this precinct, the existence of the “mischief” group will deny votes to both republicans and democrats. Incumbent Rep. David Apatang will lead the pack, followed by Rep. Karl Reyes. Best case scenario for the GOP is 5-1, worse case scenario, 4-2 with Rep. Rosiky Camacho retaining his seat while a newcomer from his party would join him take the Oath of Office in January. There’s reason for the former assessment: the democrats aren’t necessarily united while the reform sheds tears as their candidates watch the sunset of a dreamed career disappear out west.

Precinct II: Provided that incumbents have canvassed the village thoroughly securing additional support from influential members of the community, I give this race solely to the incumbents. Again, the reform lacks the political base to, well, use their favorite expression “make a difference”, and the GOP is way ahead in organization in this precinct. The loss of connectivity can’t be sowed via an ad hoc plan. It requires getting down to the grassroots level, a forte of Speaker Diego Benavente and Rep. Oscar Babauta.

Precinct III: This precinct is known for its sense of independence as manifested in previous elections. In other words, its voters aren’t dead stuck with party loyalty. It crosses party lines in sterling fashion. But it remains a GOP territory. Best case scenario, 5-1 in favor of the GOP, worse case scenario, 4-2. I still see Rep. Timmo Olopai blazing right back to the winner’s circle. I can the same thing for former Speaker Ben Fitial, Reps. Heinz Hofschneider and Jess Attao. It’ll be interesting who would survive the contest for the last seat.

Precinct IV: It’s often difficult pinning down the undercurrents in a precinct that spans the entire northern and backside of the island. The wind howls a strange noise. Incumbents better insure that they’ve turned every rock to secure re-election lest new faces would pop-up after the last vote is counted. Definitely, the two people who’ve done their homework would prevail. Best case scenario: I’ll leave this one for you.

Well, let’s hope that you as a voter would really exercise the collective goal of putting a group of well-heeled lawmakers to begin a new agenda in the Year 2000. Good luck to one and all. Si Yuus Maase`!