Volcanoes put air traffic at risk

With some 25,000 flights flying over CNMI airspace in a year, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist yesterday said the islands’ volcanoes could pose great risk to air traffic, particularly with the U.S. military’s plan to base more aircraft on Guam.

In a briefing attended mostly by government agency representatives at the Governor’s Office, James E. Quick, PhD., a veteran igneous petrologist and program coordinator of the USGS’ Volcano Hazards Program, also said Anatahan’s erupting volcano could spew out ashes and magma with the same intensity it had in May last year.

Quick said, however, that the possibility of another big eruption is unlikely, considering that the volcano continues to emit gas, reducing the buildup of pressure.

“Within just a small area of airspace immediately surrounding the Mariana islands, there are approximately 25,000 large commercial passenger flights per year, and more than 1 million flights of large commercial aircraft transit from Asia to Australia and New Zealand, passing through airspace potentially affected by eruptions in the Marianas,” according to a study conducted by Quick and other USGS experts.

“Even the small eruption of Anatahan in 2003 produced an ash cloud that disrupted regional and international air traffic on at least two days,” it added.

Saying that future eruptions would affect the economies of the CNMI and Guam, Quick underscored the need for funding to implement a plan for an early warning system for the Commonwealth.

He said assessing the hazards and monitoring the nine active volcanoes in the Northern Marianas would cost about $1.9 million per year for the first three years, $1.2 million in the fourth year, and approximately $500,000 per year eventually.

Quick said the USGS’ Volcano Hazards Program currently has no funds for the plan. He said funding under the program requires an appropriation by the U.S. Congress.

He said the plan should be implemented “at the earliest opportunity.”

Gov. Juan N. Babauta has sought the assistance of Interior Secretary Gale Norton for the hazards assessment and early warning system plan for the CNMI, noting its socio-economic importance to the Commonwealth.

Quick said volcanic ashes threaten jets and aircraft in the air, as they form deposit in engines, restrict airflow, and clog fuel nozzles. Minute particles of volcanic ash also contaminate aircraft’s ventilation, lubrication, hydraulic and electronic systems. They cause erosion and pitting of leading edges of windshields and landing lights, as well as erosion of compressor blades.

From 1944 to 2003, Quick said there were at least 110 documented instances of airports closed or operations disrupted in 75 cities and military bases in 20 countries due to volcanic hazards.

The United States has indicated plans of increasing its military presence in the Marianas region and the CNMI is projected to have an escalating strategic role for the nation.

According to U.S. Pacific Command Adm. Thomas B. Fargo, the increase in the military’s presence comes amid economic and military development in some Asian countries, including China.

“As the ‘center of gravity’ for the United States shifts both economically and militarily toward Asia, Guam and the CNMI will play an increasingly more strategic role for the United States,” Fargo said. “China and India have huge populations, and as they continue to develop economically, they will have a more significant impact on the U.S. economy.”.

Fargo, the highest-ranking naval official in the entire Pacific, visited the Northern Marianas for the first time on Tuesday and took an aerial tour of Saipan, Tinian and Farallon de Mendinilla to familiarize himself with their geography, infrastructure and potential for future military plans.