‘Anatahan eruptions likely to continue for months to years’

Federal and local agencies yesterday convened to start laying the groundwork for an operating plan for volcanic ash hazards in the CNMI, with the U.S. Geological Survey projecting that renewed volcanic activity on Anatahan would be likely for months to years.

The USGS also predicted that eruptions of other Mariana volcanoes are possible in the future, based on previous behavior. There has been one volcanic eruption every three to four years Mariana-wide, according to the USGS.

“Given Anatahan’s past behavior, we cannot discount possibility of a larger event before the end of this eruptive cycle,” said the John Ewert of the USGS. “We’re fortunate with volcanoes in that they provide us with warning before an eruption happens.”

Ewert said that, while current hazards are limited to Anatahan and to local aviation, the situation could change rapidly. He said larger explosive eruptions could possibly occur, making ash hazards more widespread. Local tsunami from pyroclastic flows entering the sea or from flank landslides into the sea is also possible, he said.

Air Services Australia alone estimates that about 67 commercial flights pass through the Mariana Islands per day. With some 25,000 flights flying over CNMI airspace in a year, the USGS said the islands’ volcanoes pose great risk to air traffic, where more than one million commercial aircraft pass through yearly.

Ewert stressed the need for an update and maintained volcanic monitoring for all islands in the Northern Marianas in a two-day workshop that began yesterday at the Aqua Resort Club—the first interagency effort that would help develop a volcanic ash response plan for the CNMI.

Agencies represented include the USGS, Federal Aviation Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, the Air Force Weather Agency, the Emergency Management Office, and the Commonwealth Ports Authority, among others.

James Quick, the USGS’ volcano hazards program coordinator, said the operational plan would define the role of each agency in monitoring volcanic activities to enable a rapid and systematic response.

CNMI eyes funding

Quick said that the Bush administration has increased its recommended funding for the USGS volcano hazards program in the amount of $21.7 million in the proposed fiscal year 2006 budget.

The proposed funding surpasses the previous funding level of $18 million for the program.

Of the proposed budget, about $300,000 to $400,000 would be allotted for the CNMI, Quick said. The funding range, however, falls short of the needed funds to implement the project in the CNMI.

Quick said that monitoring the nine active volcanoes in the Northern Marianas and assessing their hazards would cost about $1.9 million per year for the first three years, $1.2 million in the fourth year, and approximately $500,000 per year eventually. There are about four volcanoes submerged underwater.

Majority of 13 Northern Marianas volcanoes have no real-time ground-based monitoring, despite the U.S. Geological Survey’s assessment that at least four of them pose high threat to aviation and ground safety. The USGS has listed eight CNMI volcanoes as high priority targets for monitoring improvement.

Among the four volcanoes that are considered high threat, the government only has ground-based monitoring capability on Anatahan. The three other high-threat volcanoes in Pagan, Alamagan and Agrigan have zero real-time, ground-based monitoring. Based on required monitoring level for high-threat volcanoes, about 12 to 20 stations should be installed within 20 kilometers of the volcano’s vent, among other sensors.

The USGS said Anatahan should be one of the federal government’s highest priority targets for monitoring improvement. Other high priority targets include Pagan, Agrigan, Alamagan, Guguan, Farallon de Pajaros, and Asuncion. The USGS also considers Sarigan a high priority target.

Scarlett trip cancelled

Bad weather cancelled the scheduled Anatahan trip of Department of Interior assistant secretary P. Lynn Scarlett and deputy assistant secretary David B. Cohen yesterday morning.

But Emergency Management Office director Rudolfo Pua said U.S. Geological Survey representatives briefed Scarlett and Cohen on the volcanic activity on Anatahan, which continued emitting thick ash.

In a joint report, the USGS and the EMO said ash emissions continue despite low eruptive activity, which was characterized by occasional earthquakes.

“Extensive cloud cover presently obscures the view of the island, although low-level eruptive activity likely persists,” the report stated.

Anatahan’s seismic stations have been fully restored after malfunctioning in the past weeks.