Heinz leads in UoG exit polls

Independent candidate Rep. Heinz Hofschneider led his closest rival, House Speaker Benigno R. Fitial, in an exit poll conducted by the University of Guam on election day.

Hofschneider had 33 percent to Fitial’s 28 percent.

Incumbent Gov. Juan N. Babauta got 25 percent and former governor Froilan Tenorio had 14 percent.

In other words, Hofschneider got 296 votes; Fitial, 251 votes; Babauta, 224 votes; and Tenorio 126 votes.

Led by UoG professor Ronald L. McNinch, a team of seven university students surveyed 897 voters from Saipan, Tinian, and Rota, using a quota sampling method based on population by precinct or sub-unit and gender.

The interviewers were given a quota of particular types of people to interview and the quota were organized so that the final sample would be representative of the population.

For instance, San Antonio has 813 voters or 5 percent of the total number of registered voters. Thus, the sub-unit of Precinct 1 was allotted 50 cases—or 5 percent—of the 1,000 total cases.

Half of the cases were male and half were female.

UoG’s exit poll covered the positions of Governor and Lt. Governor, Saipan senators, and Saipan mayor only.

Asked for his comment, Hofschneider said he was glad to hear that he was leading based on the exit poll. But he was not getting his hopes too high.

For now he would keep an attitude of “cautious optimism,” he said.

“Anything can swing after the raw number. But the result has been consistent with our camp’s strategy. For eight months we’ve walked the streets and talked to people. It’s pretty consistent with how people feel, but we are very cautious of this raw sampling,” he said.

Hofschneider’s rivals are not accepting defeat either.

Despite the results of UoG’s exit polls, Fitial remained optimistic that he would prevail in the official count to be conducted by the Commonwealth Election Commission.

Fitial said he expects to claim victory on Rota and Tinian, which he considers among his bailiwick. “I think I’ll come out ahead in both Tinian and Rota. If that [exit polls] includes Rota and Tinian, that’s something to be concerned about. But if it does not include Tinian and Rota, I don’t think that that is representative [of the actual election turnout],” he said.

Tenorio refused to comment on the result of the poll. “I can’t comment on that kind of polling. I’ll wait until the last vote is counted [by the Election Commission],” said Tenorio.

Republican Party chair John S. Reyes also did not issue any comment, saying that he had not officially heard of the exit poll result.

In the Saipan senatorial race, Clyde Norita got 39 percent; Maria Frica Pangelinan, 37 percent; Pete Reyes, 36 percent; Thomas Villagomez, 30 percent; Andrew Salas, 23 percent; and Jack Quitugua, 7 percent.

McNinch said that, with the margin of error considered, the senatorial race would be decided by the absentee votes. The fight would be limited among Norita, Pangelinan, and Reyes, he added.

In the Saipan mayoral race, incumbent Mayor Juan B. Tudela got 39 percent of the 739 respondents.

His closest rival was Frank G. Cepeda with 21 percent. James A. Ada had 16 percent; Victorino S. Cepeda had 15 percent, and Ricardo Duenas 10 percent. (with Marconi Calindas, Liberty Dones, and John Ravelo)