Marines eyeing NMI?

Gov. Benigno R. Fitial met with a high-ranking official of the U.S. Department of Defense two weeks ago about a possible increase in military presence in the Commonwealth.

Rear Admiral Charles Joe Leidig, the U.S. Pacific Defense representative to the CNMI, Guam, Federated States of Micronesia, and Republic of Palau, came to meet with the governor on Feb. 13, 2006. Leidig also serves as commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Marianas and Navy Region Marianas.

According to Fitial, one of the topics discussed during the meeting was increased military presence in the islands, particularly Tinian.

But the governor was quick to add that nothing concrete has been decided yet.

“We decided not to talk about it yet,” he said.

Fitial also said that he was optimistic about the U.S. military coming to the Northern Marianas. He refused to elaborate.

Plans are currently underway to relocate 6,000 Marines to Guam from Okinawa.

According to Associated Press sources, the Marine Corps began the studies last year and has also set a four-stage “road map”—renovating existing unused facilities, embarking on utility works, refurnishing and upgrading existing in-use facilities, and lastly, starting construction of new facilities.

Noting that environmental studies required for new facilities under domestic laws will take at least 12 months, the sources said that the Marine Corps plans to begin moving troops from Okinawa in 2008, but also has other options, such as starting to move some Marines to renovated facilities in July or January next year.

The project was estimated to cost some $5.6 billion under the 2012 completion goal targeted by Japan and the United States.

The Marines’ plan reportedly includes construction of training facilities in the Northern Marianas.

U.S. defense sources told the Associated Press that the U.S. Marine Corps has sounded out Guam about the need to include outside contractors and workers to double the annual construction capacity there to $800 million.

But the sources said the total cost will probably end up at around $6 billion, indicating the United States eyes the figure as a possible compromise deal with Japan, which would be expected to foot up to 60 percent of the bill, against an $8 billion estimate proposed by the U.S. side in ongoing negotiations with Japan.

The Marine Corps has begun the studies in preparations for launching the project as soon as the two nations agree on an implementation plan, including the total cost, to move 7,000 Marines out of Okinawa—6,000 to Guam and 1,000 to places in Japan—under a broad package of accords on realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.

At issue in the ongoing negotiations is the total cost of the relocation and the cost-sharing in determining the implementation plans of the overall package.

U.S. Defense Department officials declined to comment on the estimated cost for the Guam construction, but confirmed the preliminary studies are being done by the Marine Corps. The Pentagon is seeking $15 million for the studies as part of the fiscal 2007 budget.

“The funding will support preliminary studies, environment impact assessment, and planning and concept development associated with the Marine Corps relocation,” an official said. “There are numerous factors that must be studied before we commit to building adequate facilities.”

On the diplomatic side, U.S. negotiators have come up with various cost estimates, ranging from $3.5 billion to nearly $9 billion, and the two sides have started to sort out necessary facilities based on the top-end estimate to nail down the final cost and their respective shares of the expenses.

The initial low-end cost was based on a local calculation that Guam’s current construction capacity is about $400 million annually and that the project will take more than 10 years.

But given that the 2012 goal requires speeding up the project and bringing in advanced construction technology, more outside contractors and workers, the United States has revised the estimates upward.

The U.S. side has officially set the total estimated cost at about $8 billion, and is reportedly asking Japan to pay 75 percent, or about $6 billion.

But the top-end cost is aimed at facilitating the bilateral work to narrow down necessary facilities, and it comprises the Marine Corps’ full wish list, such as “world-class” training areas in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, housing, medical facilities, schools, utility infrastructure and bases, the sources said.

Should Washington be willing to pay $2 billion, or 25 percent of the $8 billion cost, the U.S. side is likely to settle with Japan’s share of less than 60 percent under a possible $6 billion compromise deal, one source said.

But the source cautioned that the scenario is just simple arithmetic and is separate from negotiation tactics.

Japan needs to reduce its burden as much as possible to gain domestic support for a project that involves funding construction of military facilities overseas for a foreign power, with uncertainties prevailing over whether the Finance Ministry will fully accept such budget requests.

The sources said a final agreement depends on the extent of U.S. concessions, the cost of raising Guam’s capacity, and how much of the burden Japan is willing to share and if it would sacrifice the goal of completing the relocation by 2012 to bring down the cost.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is committed to solving the cost issue, especially given the Pentagon is focused on Guam as the center of its plan for a greater Pacific presence against China under the Quadrennial Defense Review report issued recently. (with AP)