Auguring in

[B]Why it won’t work, how it could[/B]

Given a prodding from Saipan economist Ed Stephens, I have put some real numbers to the thus far cerebral idea of the soon-to-be-happening increase in minimum wages to above seven bucks an hour.

First, many of the very people who are applauding the loudest, those at the bottom of the wage scale, will likely be losing their jobs altogether as companies grasp at straws to try to stay alive. Downsizing (read staff and personnel reductions – firings – layoffs) will become the business flavor of the coming months and years.

Next, many companies just won’t survive at all, causing the economic implosion to get worse and the job market to deteriorate to the point that many contract workers will be sent back to the Philippines or China from whence they came. The shortage will cause even more companies to BK and the death spiral will be in full swing.

The remaining businesses and private citizens and government employees will have to take on an ever-increasing tax burden (read MUCH HIGHER TAXES for YOU) in order to take some of the slack from the huge losses in government revenue. Then government, too, will have to start massive layoffs because of lack of payroll funds.

Why the dire predictions of doom and gloom? Well, if you put the pencil to it you find that just the coming mandated increase in wages for the group of lower wage earners in question amounts to more than HALF the total GDP of our entire country. For a government already near bankruptcy and a business climate so destitute it defies description shy of breathing the hated D word, this massive, forced increase in wages presages a total collapse. No country on earth can survive an increase in its costs of more than half its total income. If you think this is an exaggerated claim, then crunch the numbers yourself and try to relate the answers to your own monthly budget. If your monthly expenditures doubled and your income went way down, what would happen?

None of this even factors in the devastating effect of a full U.S. takeover of our immigration system, quite probably ending the current island lifestyle forever. Not to mention hastening the depression further.

I will go even further and predict the most dire times seen here since the immediate post-WWII era. Penury will again prevail if we continue long down this road.

Do not think that there are no opportunities, however. There will be huge possible profits for those with deep pockets and farsighted vision to pick up the remaining land from the dwindling middle class for a song. Moreover, hard business and personal assets will on the block for mere pennies on the dollar. For most of the population, however, those pennies will be needed, every one, to feed and clothe their families. Only the wealthiest and smartest will come out of this after a few years better off than when it all began. Nothing new there. It has always been thus.

I started this tirade with “why it won’t work”…a misstatement actually; it will work, for the few described above. For the rest of us it is coming and there is little or nothing we can do about it except strap on a parachute and jump or stay and trust in luck, hard work and fortitude for survival as our economic airplane crashes. Those two choices are all we will have soon. Even Pollyanna will be out on the street hookin’.

If you think Miller or Pelosi care, you’re living in a dream. We aren’t even a pimple on the U.S. economic ass. We are only good for a couple of rah-rah-save-the-workers sound bites before we hit the political trash can. (Hey, I don’t call this Sour Grapes for nothing).

There is hope, however. It lies in our ability to find a new cash cow, a new industry, a new business or service or another way to say it, a new “job” for our country. We need something that generates cash in large amounts and has a good margin of profitability. Casino gambling is such an industry. It produces lots of cash, it produces many service related jobs that can be filled by our local population and many others that contract workers can avail of. Best of all, it can get going quickly. Pass the law today, bring in the Blackjack tables tomorrow…well, it takes a bit longer, but not much. The big hotels here on Saipan could be easily and quickly converted to casino operations if they choose to. There may be other industries out there with similar income and job-producing potential. We owe it to ourselves to seek them out and give something else a try SOON.

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[B]Don’t can the canoes[/B]

Coastal Resources Management Office does a lot of important work on our fair island and should be lauded for most of it. Their latest brainstorm, however, falls into the opposite category. It is dead wrong to harass local small boat owners and subsistence fishermen by forcing the removal of the small one or two-man outrigger canoes pulled up on shore along the Beach Road Lagoon Pathway.

These small boats add charm and a sense of local tradition to the pathway and I have seen tourists stopping to take pictures of these craft on many an occasion. As the sun sets on our beautiful lagoon these individually handcrafted boats take on a glorious glow and set an ambiance that is pleasant to behold and a source of pleasure to both local and tourist photographers. Then they set out in the evening to be seen silhouetted against the moonlit lagoon waters as they ply the waters for the sea’s bounty of fish to take home and eat that night.

Far from being an eyesore, these craft should be saved and revered as one of the truly beautiful sights of our island paradise. Please let them be.

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[B]Teacher of the year stiffed[/B]

Our Public School System Teacher of the Year, Acelia Dela Cruz, was named last Wednesday. Congratulations on a job well done, Acelia! The Teacher of the Year usually receives a cash award of $5,000. This year because PSS is broke they only gave her $1,000. Local businessman Bud White of White Coconut Computers thinks something could be done to even the score. Bud told me, ”I talked with my staff yesterday afternoon and we decided we would like to give her a laptop computer. It’s worth a little over $1,000. We have been in the community for nearly 25 years and I feel we should give back to the community in which we live.” Bud went on to say, “I’m looking for other businesses here in the village and around the island that would be willing to donate money, products or services to this teacher to help make up the shortfall from PSS. I plan to go around and talk with businesses in the community and see if they can donate something.” Bud’s example shows us that the private sector can pitch in occasionally and work to help reward those who produce outstanding results in the public sector. Bud can be reached at 322-9444. Please consider helping him to show gratitude to our finest teacher this year.

[B]Quote of the week:[/B] The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.
—William Arthur Ward, college administrator, writer (1921-1994)

[I](Bruce A. Bateman writes Sour Grapes when the moon is full and the mood strikes. Stay tuned for each exciting episode. “Yes, he is opinionated.” bbateman@pticom.com.)
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