Nukes in the ‘hood

This is the time of the year when the Commonwealth’s chief historical legacy makes its annual appearance in the public press. I refer, of course, to Tinian’s status as roost for the August 6 mission of the Enola Gay.

Well, the anniversary of that date was an eternity ago in this era of fast news cycles, so when it comes to the martial application of nukes, or the specter thereof, the Middle East will be reclaiming the media limelight.

But I wouldn’t turn my attention away from Saipan’s neighborhood entirely. It looks to me like our Asian neighborhood is a prime candidate for an eventual nuclear arms race. Any substantial industrial nation in Asia has the capability to make nuclear weapons, at least if we consider nuclear power plants as the key to this capability.

Overall, Asia (as broadly defined) actually has more producing reactors (110) than the United States does (104). That’s according to data posted on the Web by the World Nuclear Association. The gap will widen, of course, as Asia continues to advance. While bemoaning the high cost of oil, the United States has exactly zero (zero!) new nuclear plants under construction. Japan, by contrast, has two being built; South Korea, four; China, seven; and though Taiwan may already have nuclear plants I don’t know many more they have planned.

Industrial Asia has, for the most part, enjoyed a span of generally peaceful times. These have coincided with the large presence of U.S. forces in the region. But as the military marches on its wallet, and as the U.S. economy continues to decline (remember, I foresaw the falling dollar years ago, and warned you numerous times), its stature as the guarantor of Asian peace and security will likewise atrophy.

Then? Militarily speaking, Asia will be wide open, baby.

At this point, we reach the wild difference between intent and capability. Any nation, militarily, can only be judged by its capability; intent, by contrast, can change with the wind (and you can’t even read it anyway). That’s basic strategic thinking. So, any nation in Asia that wants to be ensured of its survival will have to gauge that goal based on the relative capability, not the mere intent, of its neighbors, and the arms race dynamic will be primed.

Which is to say that the biggest threat in a rough bar is the toughest dude in the joint, even if he just called you “buddy” and bought your girlfriend a drink. And Asia can be a very rough bar indeed.

To the American mind, the only issue with Asia is whether Uncle Sam and China will duke it out someday. It’s a valid issue, of course, but possibly only in the short run. In a generation, it’s possible that Asia will simply regard the U.S. as irrelevant. Wealth and vigor follow free markets, and Asia is the future of free markets, at least to the extent that free markets have a future at all.

In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if Asia’s arms industries start developing. If they do, it will be pregnant with meaning. I haven’t cooked up a way to track this stuff, but I’m sure there are financial types who track it for investors. Beyond that, I suspect that the new members of “Club Nuke” might be a lot closer to Saipan than the Middle East is.

That’s what I think.

Buddy.