Don’t let the Dow dog you

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Posted on Aug 11 2011
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August is a month to think happy sunshine thoughts, since its dog days are otherwise too doggone doggedly doggy to endure. So, nice guy that I am, I was going to serve an upbeat little number about the joys of lottery tickets. But we’ll shelve that piece of sunshine for later because of the stock market. As you probably know, the Dow Jones industrial average, a/k/a the “Dow,” went bonkers this week.

So I’ll call an audible from the line and chime in with some color commentary.

First of all, don’t worry. Be happy.Uncle Sam has plenty of money to send to the Commonwealth. Or, should I say, plenty of credit from which to ship the money out. Same thing. Well, for us, anyway.

So, smile: The federal money won’t hiccup as long as bond markets stay happy.

But we have to look at stocks from a news perspective.

So, as for the Dow, well, twice this week it seemed to put lead weights in its pockets and jump off Suicide Cliff. It did a 519.83 dipsy-doodle yesterday.

If you want to take a five trading day tally, and maybe you shouldn’t, the Dow shed 1,179.5 points, a 9.9-percent decline. Worse yet, all the drama has pushed Kim Kardashian off the front page, and even Lady Gaga, too, which is a pretty dire situation, even for the ebb of August.

All this stock stuff was rooted in the slow-burn freak out about our Uncle Sam’s debts. Well, that’s no news here, given that I was writing about the debt gig six and seven years ago, as some long time readers will recall. The time for people to financially react to the toxic debt thing, and place their bets accordingly, was a long, long time ago.

Anyway, as for this stock market drama, if you care about it, let me lift your spirits by observing that the Dow is actually up, yes, up, for the past year.

Furthermore, I can’t say it matters much, anyway. The stock market can do whatever it wants to, that’s not the issue for Saipan’s cut of federal money. Which brings me to the real issue here: bonds.

Bonds matter. Big time. Bonds are how the U.S. borrows money to send all over the place, including to the Commonwealth.

So bonds are the action to watch. Yeah, yeah, I know, for some reason, Homer Q. Public looks at stocks, and the Dow in particular, as some kind of economic football score.

But the real news is that there is no news: So far, the bond market has been snug and smug. Why? Frankly, I don’t know. But the only thing that could stem the freely flowing fiscal juice from the feds is a fall in the bond market. And, thus far, that fall has not happened. Not at all. Not even a little bit. Not even a little, teeny, tiny little bit.

So where does this leave Saipan? It leaves Saipan further along the same economic road, that’s where. Nothing has changed. Industrial Asia is the bright spot of the world economy, as it has been for years now. Saipan could have, but didn’t, become an element of the booming Asian economy, but there’s no use worrying about that now, since those pesky package tourists, and the jobs they create, and the airlines, and the jobs they create, and the hotels, and the jobs they create, and the travel agencies, and the jobs they create, and the ground operators, and the jobs they create, and the optional tour operators, and the jobs they create, and the restaurants, and the jobs they create, and the stores, and the jobs they create, well, those tourists and businesses and jobs and money weren’t good enough for us. After all, we’ve got other priorities. And complete federal support. Nice deal.

Bottom line: Notwithstanding pensioners who might have hitched their futures to the stock market, the Dow’s drama isn’t a big deal for Saipan. So, we’re cool. Big time.

Besides, if things turn sour, we can always buy lotto tickets. Hey, I’m in! Can’t win if you don’t play, right? So, stay tuned, I’ve got an uplifting lotto success story to share with you, if only the markets will calm down long enough for me to float it. Think nice thoughts, and dream big dreams, that’s what I say, especially in August.

[I]Visit Ed Stephens Jr. at TropicalEd.com. Ed is a pilot, economist, and writer. He holds a degree in economics from UCLA and is a former U.S. naval officer. His column runs every Friday.[/I]

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