‘Tourism uncertain but can increase in 2009’

Although 2009 is full of uncertainty for the local tourism industry, Marianas Visitors Authority board of directors chair Jerry Tan believes increased airline seat capacity could help the CNMI.

During the MVA’s biannual membership meeting last week, Tan presented his forecast for 2009; a task that he said was not easy.

“I start with a big question mark because 2009 is really full of uncertainty,” he said. “In order to do a good forecast you need a good basis. Unfortunately, there are too many unknown factors,” he said, adding that the economy, inflation, federalization and the visa waiver program are all factors beyond MVA’s control.

Tan’s forecast for 2009, based on actual arrivals and airline load factors, shows an increase of 56,000 tourists to 433,000 from 2008 estimated numbers. The increase in visitors will come solely from Korea and Japan, according to Tan’s presentation. This is assuming there is no loss in flights from the two countries. The prediction takes into account the loss of flights and visa waivers for China and Russia.

With increased flights to and from Korea and Japan, Tan estimates the CNMI could see an increase of 90,000 Japanese and Korean visitors compared to 2007. The numbers were determined using a load factor of 75 percent.

There are obstacles, though, Tan said. The rapid and extreme depreciation of the Korean won is affecting tourism and Korean investors in the CNMI.

“The impact to the CNMI because of the won is not only on tourism but also on investment, because now it costs a lot more money for Koreans to invest anything into the CNMI,” he said, adding that it now costs Koreans 40 percent more to travel to the CNMI and other locations in the United States.

Tan said the CNMI is lucky that Kumho Asian has invested in the CNMI. The company is building the $60 million Laolao Bay Golf Resort and has increased flights to and from Korea. Kumho also will begin flights from Osaka, Japan, this week.

“So we are very lucky that Kumho Asiana owns Laolao and Kumho Asiana owns Asiana [airlines]. So it’s not to their best interest to withdraw air service because they also need to protect their investment here. So we’re very thankful and we need to continue to support them.”