Costly error in judgment

By John S. DelRosario Jr.

As human beings, we make mistakes in daily decisions, good and bad. It means making errors is unavoidable. Understanding the nature of errors is vital to our well-being. Let’s explore this together.

There are two types of errors: Type I Error and the Type II Error. The Type I Error is when we reject a true hypothesis when we should accept it. The Type II Error is when we accept a false hypothesis when we should reject it. In decision-making, there’s always a non-zero probability of making one error or the other.

That means we’re confronted with asking the question: Which error is least costly? Let’s apply this concept to a couple of issues right here at home.

Four years ago, a technical expert on fuel advised the NMI government about a cheaper type of fuel over diesel. This administration and its now suspended CUC board of directors scrapped the advice. Look at where we are today.

This is Type I Error, a rejection of a technical advice when this government should have accepted it. It is, indeed, a very costly error.

Thus, consumers are saddled with fuel surcharge, not for the better, but for more of the same while dealing with rolling blackouts.

It is especially costly for small businesses, i.e., restaurants and pastry shops. Everything stops when the power goes off. The opportunity to rake in money disappears. It translates into far less revenue generation for the local coffers. It poses a threat to the financial solvency of already struggling small businesses.

Now, the fast tracking of privatization of CUC is an interesting agenda of this administration. Would services improve? Or is it more of the same?

Again? Is it in the public interest or is it an orchestration to reward a politically connected bidder at taxpayers’ expense? An honest answer is warranted right here and now.

The alternative is simple: Let’s explore turning CUC into a public corporation with all consumers as stockholders and owners. Let’s run it business-like by retaining a professional management team. This team must cut excesses and instill an efficient utility system. I am sure that, if each of us has a stake in the financial well-being of CUC, we too would ensure that it stays financially solvent, while delivering the services it is expected to provide, 24 hours a day.

It’s a way of removing politics and grand inefficiencies from CUC. We must weed out politics and put a trained cadre of managers and workers. No more alleged lords of power generation. Let’s get technical experts in and fully trained crew so we get things done promptly without second-guessing our way as we have seen and still see today.

Friends, listening is an important trait of leadership. In fact, it is the most vital tool in the disposition of matters of state or country. This trait is the most analyzed aspect of the revered 16th president of the Great US of A, Abraham Lincoln. Arrogance, ignorance and immaturity aren’t the answers to the prevailing mess so triggered by indecisions.

Now, there should be a press conference by this administration to explain what went wrong in its indecision dating back four years ago. I’d like to see just one reporter ask: Had you listened to technical advice four years ago, would consumers be paying the whopping fuel surcharge today? Had you listened, would there be a need for a state of emergency on fuel shortage?

The bottom line is, we humans are not perfect. We will make errors. But rationality requires that we recognize and weigh the cost of one error against the other. This administration has failed taxpayers on this matter.

If you still disagree (I mean politics aside), would you be paying for the current fuel surcharge that feeds wildly against family pocketbooks in these bad times?

(John S. DelRosario Jr. is a private businessman, chair of the Committee to Elect Ben and Tim, and a former publisher of the Saipan Tribune.)