Strategic moves, island issues

Talk about a turbo-charged news month; My Aug. 8 column took a look at the specter of an arms race on Saipan’s Asian doorstep, and just as we contemplated those pieces on our strategic chess board, a large bear paw rearranged the entire game. I refer, of course, to Russian tanks tanking a summer jaunt into Georgia.

This is no merely academic subject for the Commonwealth. Given the CNMI’s sorry economic management, the only substantial economic action it can possibly land is U.S. defense bucks, as Guam and, perhaps, the NMI enjoy a strategic limelight in an increasingly tense world.

And, already adding to an already eventful month is this: Word is circulating that the U.S. Navy is trying to gauge the interest of local contractors, which I assume means that military investments are a distinct possibility.

Just for the heck of it, let’s ponder a scenario in which active duty personnel are stationed in the Commonwealth. I don’t know if this will happen, but, given that it’s the only bright economic star on the horizon, it’s worth looking at. What remains of the Commonwealth business community would certainly welcome the financial action that an increased military presence might offer.

An injection of money wouldn’t be the only benefit of some sort of naval presence. If there are people being permanently stationed, the intellectual capital that the military offers can be substantial. Military veterans frequently make excellent business leaders after they settle into civilian life. The Navy, for example, produces nuclear engineers, doctors, pilots, logistics experts, dentists, and all sorts of capable technicians. These are just the kind of professionals that not only defend the seas, but, in civil roles, also move economies forward.

Of course, the average folks in Saipan would certainly welcome the military and the jobs it would bring to the community. However, the military doesn’t have to kowtow to the local government hierarchy that is the determinant of status and power in this economy. Status is a zero-sum game, and the Commonwealth has some egos that feel threatened by outside expertise or status.

That’s no small issue. I saw parts of the Japanese tourism industry get clobbered by this fact. (If the Koreans think they’ll fare any better, I can assure you that they won’t, and that, eventually, if they keep succeeding, they’ll run into various and sundry hardships and scapegoating, some of it overt, some behind the scenes, but I digress.)

If there was to be a substantial (say, a few hundred or more personnel) military presence in the Commonwealth, I think things would evolve thusly: First, there would be euphoria that a source of money has been found. Existing businesses would flourish, and new businesses would take root. Once that honeymoon was over, however, some people, long entrenched here politically, would resent their perceived loss of comparative status. The military would then become a scapegoat for the Commonwealth’s ills. Activists, some of them motivated by power-plays, and others just unhappy people looking for a new crusade, would spring up. Issues of “pride” and “community” would start to get traction, which would slide into an “us vs. them” gig in short order, and the military would be blamed for everything from chronic gingivitis to high cable television prices.

I’ve seen this happen before in similar venues. I know the dynamics. I know the factors.

I think a military presence would be a great benefit to the Commonwealth. I’d certainly welcome it. And so would my friends. But my friends and I don’t set policy in the Commonwealth.

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