‘Slippery numbers hobbled data collection’

During a presentation on the recently released report on the impact of federal laws on the CNMI, one of the study’s authors said gathering data for the report was a challenge.

Malcolm McPhee, one of the people responsible for the Comprehensive Assessment of the CNMI Economy – Economic Impact of Federal Laws on the CNMI, told the more than 100 business owners and community members in attendance that his co-author, Dick Conway, had to work with different sets of data and in some cases had to choose which data was the most accurate to use.

According to the report, in 2005 the population of the CNMI was 70,200 with a workforce of 35,960. Of the workforce, 23,360 were foreign workers. Under federalization, according to the report, by 2015 the population is projected to decrease to 40,480, with 16,270 workers employed and 1,000 of those nonresidents. Under the “relief” scenario, the population would decrease to 61,730 by 2015, with the employment level at 31,840 and 18,740 of those made up of foreign workers.

Numbers problem

McPhee acknowledged that Conway, who was unable to come to the CNMI for the presentation, had trouble with statistics, including population numbers.

“That was really a difficult process,” he said. “Sometimes we had long conversations on which population figures were accurate.”

Conway worked with the Commerce Department through e-mail to settle on numbers, McPhee said.

Numbers for the labor force were also difficult to determine. For the year 2007-2008, there might be five different sources with five different numbers. It was a unique situation for Conway who is used to agencies in the United States, where numbers are readily available, he said.

“Dr. Conway had to tear his hair out some times,” he added.

McPhee’s discussion on data came after an audience member asked about the report’s methodology. McPhee was questioned how he and Conway were able to get solid numbers while the U.S. Government Accountability Office and the U.S. Department of Labor had trouble obtaining figures for their respective studies on the impact of applying U.S. immigration and minimum wage laws o the CNMI.

The McPhee and Conway study cites both U.S. agencies’ trouble in obtaining data, and that it hampered completing a thorough study.

The U.S. Department of Labor noted, “The information vacuum continues to be an obstacle to an objective and comprehensive assessment of the economy and its productive capacity.”

‘Train in the tunnel’

During the presentation McPhee reiterated the report’s findings, which include that under federalization, the CNMI economy stands to lose approximately 44 percent of its real Gross Domestic Product, 60 percent of its jobs and 45 percent of its real personal income by 2015.

“There’s light at the end of the tunnel under the relief scenario, but the federalization scenario is an oncoming train in the tunnel,” McPhee said.

He admitted there were a lot of variables in the relief scenario that must take place in order for the numbers to have the predicted outcome.

Doubling the tourism industry, as was noted in his presentation, is hypothetical. It’s used as an illustration that “all of these would be possible if you didn’t have to worry about an adequate labor force.”

Several local businesses and organizations donated funds to bring McPhee out to the CNMI to discuss the report.

The report was completed with a federal grant from the U.S. Interior Department. A request for proposals was placed and a team was chosen and contracted with the Office of the Governor.