Dire strait

The moment the last vote was counted in Taiwan’s presidential elections Saturday, the mudslinging among three contenders that preceded the poll settled like a spent storm. But something more ominous has been unleashed by the exercise.

The winner, Chen Shui-bian, is the man China least wanted to take over Taiwan’s presidency. Chen’s party, the Democratic Progressive Party, supports independence from China, something Beijing would go to war for. With Chen at the helm, the spectre of a possible armed confrontation will continue to hang like a sword over the narrow strait that divides the two Chinas.

The Taiwan strait has long been one of Asia’s security flashpoints –– a fistfight waiting to happen that has caused concern among Asian countries and the Western world led by the United States. Washington knows the enormous damage a war between China and Taiwan would bring to a region steeped in American interests and has taken pains to ease the word war that periodically and consistently erupts between the two sides. After Chen’s victory, U.S. officials immediately descended on Taiwan and China and reminded the Chinese in so many euphemistic terms the value of restraint.

Taiwan broke away from China during a civil war in 1949. China still considers the island to be an integral part of the mainland and has threatened to use force if Taiwan takes any step toward independence.

A politician who has been described as a pragmatist rather than an ideologue, Chen immediately tried to cool tension with China after winning. He offered to visit China and invited Chinese leaders to come over. He said he was willing to open negotiations with the mainland as long as Taiwan is considered as an equal on the bargaining table rather than as a Chinese province, which would considerably reduce Taipei’s strength in the negotiations. China wants Taiwan to agree to a one-China principle, which holds that Taiwan is a Chinese satellite, before agreeing to hold negotiations. Most Taiwanese, however, reject that position thinking Taiwan
would start in a bad bargaining position if it agrees to that. Many in Taiwan are afraid that a bad deal with China would give the Chinese central government a tight grip on democratic and economic gains they have painstakingly earned through years of hard work.

The two positions seem irreconcilable at this point and America wields the only strong hand that keeps the guns of both sides from going off across the Taiwanese strait. When China test fired its missiles near Taiwan after President Lee Teng Hui started dropping hints he would work for Taiwanese independence in the past, the
United States brought a carrier uncomfortably nearby like a stocky bouncer waiting to lay his hands on customers gearing for a scuffle in a bar.

The United States is in the war path of the two Chinas. It has been supplying war materiel to Taiwan for years to China’s consternation knowing it is one of a few countries in the world who could risk earning the wrath of the communist giant. The new figure thrust in that war path, Chen, is showing two faces. He immediately extended the olive branch to the mainland by his initial gestures. At the same time, he warned he would work for independence if China takes any nasty step, like launching an attack. That sounds like he would continue the policy of past Taiwanese leaders –– maintaining a de facto independence for as long as possible by fending off China’s occasional arm-twisting.

As Chen emerged the winner Saturday, Asian countries quietly but cautiously watched from a distance, knowing his ascent to power would stir the troubled waters of Taiwan Strait all the more.

Chen officially becomes Taiwan’s president on May 20.