Good and bad

A businessman in San Diego, who was eyeballing the CNMI for a project, contacted me in confusion after he peeled back a dark layer of Saipan’s shadowy business world. He had been compiling a report to deliver to some colleagues, whereupon he discovered, to his horror, that the “economist” he had been citing doesn’t even hold a degree in the topic, or anything related to it.

Upon looking into things further, he realized that his compilations were a stack of, well…crap. It had the veneer of a few weighty sounding buzz words, but was essentially meaningless as economic analysis. The San Diego guy was furious about the misstep and wasted time (still is, from the sounds of it). He found his way to me, and e-mailed to ask how such things can happen.

We scheduled a phone call. And I told him the bad news, and the good.

THE BAD:

First, the bad: In business, nothing is as it seems on Saipan. Yes, anyone can call themselves an economist, since nobody in the CNMI knows what one is. That’s why, in the realm of economics, there is a distinctly third-world flavor to things, as policy incompetence creates habitual dysfunction, and constant dismay that things never seem to go right.

What passes for “economics” here is, one way or the other, the same socialistic, government-oriented blather that you see in the world’s chronically poor economies.

The fact that investors must heed is that the U.S. is propping up the Commonwealth financially, and you should think long and hard about why that is, and about the types of people such environments attract. This is the most succinct and profound advice I can give any potential investor.

And, note that while the usual suspects have been blowharding about “potential investors,” many of the investors already here have been bailing out in droves. Even entire banks have fled, and I’m talking big name, international powerhouses who are tough but not dumb. Gee, why do you think that is? Does anybody really expect fresh financial meat to jump into that fire? Why would a newbie jump into a situation that a veteran is running away from? Not even the econocrats really believe that investor shuck and jive, but it’s a cargo cult gig, and when you’ve got a good cargo cult gig rolling, well, roll it does…

THE GOOD:

But let’s move from the business angle to the lifestyle angle. Here, it’s good news.

Uncle Sam will pay the tab, no matter what it costs, to keep things rolling at a somewhat functional level. CUC has been driven into the ground, but Uncle Sam will eventually rescue the electricity front somehow. Food stamps and educational assistance will always come to the islands, nobody is going to starve or go without a classroom.

The postal service will always work, and you can mail a letter half way around the world for 37 cents. Nobody will invade Saipan, it’s protected by the U.S. military.

The cops are friendly and honest. The roads are in good shape. The people are very nice. The mix of island lifestyle and Asian cultures is unique and charming. The government clerks are helpful and pleasant.

Food and restaurants are clean, just like the U.S. There are good radio stations, including classic rock and NPR. Saipan’s library would put most small town U.S. libraries to shame, as would Saipan’s bookstore. The Commonwealth has a very lively press and free speech, possibly freer than anywhere else in the world.

There’s no malaria, and few mosquitos. It’s hot, but not hot-hot. If you like islands, there is more to like in the CNMI than just about anywhere else.

Which is why a lot of folks stick around. And for those who don’t have to earn a living in Saipan’s economy, it is a great tropical playground.

But, bending around to the investor realm again, one has to separate lifestyle issues from business issues. And so I told the San Diego guy what I’ve told some others: Spend some time on Saipan without thinking about business. Just enjoy it. Don’t take the hucksters and the hustlers personally, or seriously, they are just part of the scene here. Laugh at what’s funny, but don’t get caught up in all the drama.

In sum: Enjoy it without having your money at risk. That way you’ll be able to see the good, and avoid the bad. There is a lot of both.

(Ed Stephens Jr. is an economist and columnist for the Saipan Tribune. E-mail him at Ed4Saipan@yahoo.com.)