Asia’s troubled waters

As expected, gun shots rang out in the deceivingly tranquil waters of the South China sea’s disputed Spratly islands last month.

On Oct. 13, a Vietnam war-era Philippine Air Force OV-10 Bronco attack plane flew too low while on a surveillance mission and was fired upon by Vietnamese troops stationed on Tennent reef, a Spratlys area claimed by both Manila and Hanoi. The Philippine plane was spying on Vietnamese men constructing a three-story concrete outpost on the reef. After the Vietnamese opened fire, the Bronco climbed to a safe level and flew away.

Luckily, the Bronco was not hit and no one was injured in the shooting, the first shots ever directed against the Philippine military in the Spratlys. Early last year, Vietnamese men marooned on another reef also fired on a group of Filipino fishermen gathering sea cucumbers and injured one of them. The Philippines protested to
Vietnam in both cases and Vietnam twice ignored Manila’s grumbling.

Many think that the Spratlys is an accident waiting to happen. The chain of islands, islets, cays, reefs and shoals scattered in the vast South China sea has also become a source of regional discord, a thorn on efforts toward regional unity. The conflicting claims by six claimant countries, led by China, has also stirred international apprehension that the race to control the Spratlys could affect the freedom of navigation in the South China seas, where much of the oil that power Asia’s industries is transported.

The warning has been aired all over Asia –– in newspapers, regional conferences, speeches, and studies but no comprehensive solution is in sight. A key problem is a lack of a regional mechanism to deal with the problem. The conservative Association of Southeast Asian Nations, where four of the Spratlys claimants belong, is a dismal failure. All it has done is a Spratlys peace advocacy that is just a step above doing nothing. The Spratlys has become an ugly blackeye for ASEAN because its peace pronouncements have been routinely ignored. A security forum it created called ASEAN Regional Forum, or ARF, which also groups 10 other Asian, Western and
European countries, including the United States, has also failed to do something of significance. Last month, Philippine President Joseph Estrada proposed a new security forum in East Asia, frustrated by the failings of ASEAN and the ARF.

The Philippines is trying to bring the problem to international fora, primarily to the United Nations, but is being blocked by China, which wants to settle the conflict bilaterally or only among the claimants. China also resists any foreign intervention, which the Philippines wants to do. Last year, the Philippines gave a U.S.
Congressman, Dana Rohrabacher, a joy ride over the disputed islands aboard an Air Force X-130 plane. After the trip, Rohrabacher delivered, uttering anti-communist invectives at China.

The claimants –– Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam –– are at a loss too on how to resolve their claims. One bright idea, which is being practiced de facto, is to shelve the territorial disputes and attempt to jointly explore the fabled oil, gas and minerals that lie underneath the Spratlys. That idea remains bright only so long as nothing is found. As it is, the claimants have been readying their guns and fortresses and literally erecting fences in the open sea. What if oil spurts out anywhere in the area one fine morning? Remember that oil and land have triggered many a war in the world.

Facing a problem ridden with complications, all the claimants, it seems, have no choice but to sit together and talk it out. Plain and simple. Establish a diplomatic mechanism involving only the six claimants whose only aim is to try to resolve the disputes. The claimant countries have built enough hotel conference rooms and ballrooms to host summits even monthly on a rotating basis. The answer is not in the ASEAN, in the U.N. or in bilateral fora. It is in themselves and only themselves. No proposed solution would work even if one of the claimants would be left out. The talks could last over several lifetimes and could go in several directions but who cares? The only other alternative is war and nobody definitely wants that. That’s a good starting point to agree at.