When the fat lady flies

There is no sweeter sight than a JAL Boeing 747 landing on Saipan. Airliners are the lifeblood of the CNMI’s tourism industry, of course. And those big Boeings are flying flagships of America’s industrial dominance. This dominance is slipping (along with the value of the U.S. dollar), and it looks to me like Boeing is slipping as well. The next time you spy a 747 at the airport, here is some food for thought…

Boeing has once again been upstaged by its European arch-rival, Airbus, which unveiled the monster A380 earlier this week. Airbus has been outselling Boeing for a couple of years now. On the heels of the mighty IBM selling off its personal computer division to the Chinese, it saddens a red-blooded Americano like me to see flagship industries beaching themselves.

Many blame “cheap foreign” labor for the woes in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Saipan’s garment industry wears the scars of that bogus scapegoating. So what’s the excuse now? Are they going to blame the Europeans and cheap labor for Boeing’s slide from the top? Ha! Sorry, it won’t work: Western European labor isn’t cheap.

There’s a lot at stake here, as the world’s economies are doing the Darwin dance, and only the fittest will prevail. The CNMI has always had a front row seat to the juncture where East meets West, and I still maintain that Asia is where the world’s economic future is. Though Europe isn’t really on the Commonwealth’s radar screen, Europe sure as heck plays a role in determining just how much stature the U.S. has internationally. All this stuff is interconnected.

Anyway, let’s gawk at the mighty Airbus A380, the first example of which was unveiled in Toulouse, France, on Tuesday. The fully-loaded plane will tip the scales at 1.2 million pounds! That’s fully 37 percent heavier than the mighty 747. Airbus has created its own league of airliner, no doubt about it.

Boeing, on the other hand, has some egg on its face from 2001, when it sought to get back in the limelight by unveiling the “Sonic Cruiser,” a wacky, futuristic craft that looked like something Cheech and Chong dreamed up after a few too many huffs on the hookah. Nobody with any sense thought it would be built. And, it wasn’t. Meanwhile, Airbus muscled in 150 orders for its A380, including orders from American companies like Federal Express and UPS, which have bellied up for cargo versions.

And, also meanwhile, Boeing has unveiled plans for the 7E7 “Dreamliner,” which won’t be built out of metal, but instead will use composites. Thus, Boeing is losing its traditionalist approach to things, which makes me wonder what kind of competitive advantage it intends to employ vs. Airbus. Boeing was always a favorite of stodgy old traditionalists like myself. Will Boeing even be building civilian airliners five years from now?

I asked an experienced Boeing 727 captain what he thinks of the situation, and he calls the latest Airbus accomplishment the “final nail in the coffin of Boeing.” People get wildly emotional about this topic, so the good captain is wisely keeping his name under wraps on this one.

I remember when there were three jetliner manufacturers operating in the U.S.: Lockheed, Boeing, and McDonnell Douglas. Now, it’s down to just one. Gee, do you see a trend there?

Of course, this opera ain’t nearly over until the fat lady flies, so we’ll have to see if the A380 performs as advertised. If Boeing loses its leadership in the super-large jet realm, it will be fodder for case studies by MBAs the world over. Boeing has seen some losses at the small end of the spectrum, as a Brazilian company, Embraer, has been booking sales for its new E190.

As for the massive Airbus A380, and its potential load of 800 or so passengers, will Saipan ever see it? Probably not soon, if ever. Few airports are equipped to handle this monster craft at present. I do not yet know if Saipan’s runway is long enough to accommodate the A380.

Boeing’s legendary 707 pretty much brought jetliner travel into broad acceptance, and every jetliner it has built ever since was awesome. I do hope that Boeing can keep going, but, for now, Airbus has claimed top dog status, and there’s no evidence to suggest that this will change.

Will this directly affect Saipan? I guess not. Tourists don’t care if they arrive on American or European jets. But the Commonwealth does fly that red, white, and blue, and it will be a sentimental loss, if nothing else, if the mighty Boeing, father of our beloved 747s, becomes just another heap of forgotten slag on America’s manufacturing rust belt.

(Ed Stephens, Jr. is an economist and columnist for the Saipan Tribune. Ed4Saipan@yahoo.com)