NMI economic report numbers don’t add up

Records show data used to illustrate the impact of federal laws on the CNMI economy differed from earlier data the CNMI submitted to the U.S. government.

Malcolm McPhee, one of the authors of the Comprehensive Assessment of the CNMI Economy: Economic Impact of Federal Laws on the CNMI, acknowledged Thursday last week the difficulty he and co-author Dick Conway had in obtaining accurate data for the report that was released in November. Gov. Benigno Fitial has mentioned the report’s findings in his motion to stop labor provisions of the new Northern Marianas Immigration Act.

One of the largest discrepancies in numbers is the per capita income for the CNMI. McPhee’s report states that in 2004 the per capital income for the CNMI was $13,111—more than double the $6,178 per capita income for 2004 reported in the CNMI Household Income and Expenditures Survey, which was conducted by the Central Statistics Division of the Department of Commerce in October 2005.

In April 2008, when the HIES report was released, local government officials presented a copy of it to an Office of Insular Affairs economist in an effort to illustrate to the U.S. Congress and the Bush Administration the CNMI’s economy and the impact of federal issues.

Population figures in McPhee’s report differ with numbers in the HIES report and earlier CNMI Commerce statistics.

McPhee’s report states that in 2005 the CNMI population was 70,200 using a mid-year estimate—4,273 more than was reported in the HIES which used October 2005 counts.

The Government Accountability Office, which prepared its own report on the impact of federal laws used the HIES population figure of 65,927. CNMI government officials have criticized the GAO ‘s findings in the report.

Commerce census statistics show the 1995 CNMI population as 58,846 while the recent report states 58,130—a difference of 716. Population in 1980 was 17,440 according to the report, while the 1980 Commerce census statistics reports the population level at 16,780—660 less than the economic study’s number.

A footnote to the numbers said the report’s estimates differed from numbers provided in a 1999 economic impact report, noting that the McPhee report uses numbers based on April 1 counts. It did not state when the previous report counts were held.

On Thursday, McPhee said that, because of multiple sources of data, he and Conway often had trouble determining what figure to use.

“That was really a difficult process,” he said. “Sometimes we had long conversations on which population figures were accurate.”

Conway worked with the Commerce Department through e-mail to settle on numbers, McPhee said. McPhee, who came out to the CNMI to discuss the report, could not be reached Friday as he was returning to the United States.

Both McPhee’s report as well as the GAO’s report noted the difficulty in obtaining reliable figures.

Numbers for the labor force were also difficult to determine. For one year there might be five different sources with five different numbers. It was a unique situation for Conway who is used to agencies in the United States, where numbers are readily available, McPhee said.

“Dr. Conway had to tear his hair out some times,” he added.

The Comprehensive Assessment of the CNMI Economy: Economic Impact of Federal Laws on the CNMI was completed with a federal grant from the U.S. Interior Department. A request for proposals was placed and a team was chosen and contracted with the Office of the Governor.